The official hryvnia to US dollar exchange rate strengthened by another 8 kopecks on February 28

After the official hryvnia to US dollar exchange rate rose by 12 kopecks on February 27, the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) raised it by another 8 kopecks at the auction on February 28, to 41.4313 UAH/$1, as indicated in the data on the regulator’s website.

“The dollar exchange rate is expected to fluctuate within the range of 41.50–42.20 UAH/$1. The key factors that will influence the market will be the NBU's decision on refinancing on March 6 and the policy of the US Federal Reserve System,” KYT Group currency market analysts outlined their expectations for the coming weeks in their February report.

In their opinion, the hryvnia may gradually weaken in the spring, especially if the foreign trade deficit increases. Analysts predict an average corridor for the US dollar within 42.50–44.00 UAH/$1.

“The main risks are possible delays in international financial assistance and an increase in the budget deficit,” KYT Group added.

Experts believe that the hryvnia to US dollar exchange rate by the end of the year will be 44.50-45.50 UAH/$1.

The NBU set the target exchange rate for Friday at 12:00 at UAH 41.4341/$1, compared to UAH 41.5274/$1 on Thursday.

Meanwhile, on the cash market on Friday the dollar became cheaper: when buying, its rate fell by 3 kopecks, to 41.53 UAH/$1, and when selling, by 1 kopeck, to 41.64 UAH/$1.

As reported, the Cabinet of Ministers set the average annual official exchange rate of the hryvnia to the US dollar at 45 UAH/$1 in the state budget for 2025.

In the 2024 budget, the government set the average annual exchange rate at 40.7 UAH/$1, and at the end of the year — 42.1 UAH/$1. Over the past year, the hryvnia has weakened at the official rate by 10.6%, or by 4.02 UAH — to 42.0390 UAH/$1.

According to preliminary data, Ukraine's international reserves as of February 1, 2025 amounted to $43.003 billion; in January they decreased by 1.8%, or $785 million, and net international reserves – by $790 million, or 2.7%, to $28.313 billion.