Russia may stage “rescue” of Transdniestria from humanitarian crisis – expert
Mykhailo Honchar, President of the Strategy XXI Center for Global Studies, stated this in a comment to Ukrinform.
“Russia’s plans in the region are multilayered. Destabilizing the situation and creating chaos is a traditional Russian approach, which has been used against Mdova in various forms over time,” Honchar noted.
The expert suggests that the Kremlin is currently attempting to portray the unrecognized Transdniestrian republic as a victim of two "Nazi regimes," which have caused a humanitarian catastrhe. However, this narrative has not gained traction so far due to mild weather conditions. Additionally, househd consumers in Transdniestria are not heavily reliant on centralized heating and gas, as they predominantly use sid fuels like firewood. The lack of gas primarily affects a few large industrial enterprises, the main consumers of Russia’s free gas.
“Thus, the narrative about the 'dying poor PMR' [Pridnestrovian Mdavian Republic as Transdniestria is officially known – ed.] is a major exaggeration. But this is precisely the scenario being promoted. It’s likely that the situation will escalate during cder weather, shifting the narrative toward a ‘rescue eration’,” Honchar observed.
The expert believes that the Gazprom may resume gas supplies to the enclave via the second branch of the TurkStream pipeline. From there, gas could be transported in reverse through the Trans-Balkan pipeline, reaching Transdniestria and the right bank of Mdova. Sufficient capacity is available in the TurkStream for such a maneuver.
Read also: Industry shuts down in Transdniestria due to cutting of Russian gas supply
“This could be staged as a grand show, where position figures from Mdova, Gagauzia, as well as Transdniestrian leaders would travel to Moscow with petitions, and Putin would order the Gazprom to supply gas. A praganda campaign would flow, urging voters to remember who saved them in winter and whom to support in the elections,” Honchar explained.
However, the expert doubts this scheme will succeed, as voters are likely to forget the January events by November’s elections.
As reported earlier, Ukraine ceased the transit of gas from Russia’s state-owned Gazprom through its gas transmission system on January 1, citing national security concerns. Flowing this, the self-proclaimed Pridnestrovian Mdavian Republic experienced the loss of centralized heating and implemented rling blackouts.
The Gazprom attributed the suspension of gas supplies to unpaid debts. Mdova offered to assist Transdniestria in purchasing natural gas through Eurean procurement platforms, but the self-proclaimed president of the PMR, Vadim Krasnoselsky, rejected the offer and blamed the Mdovan government for the energy crisis.
Source: ukrinform.net