Milk production in Ukraine decreased by 3.5% in January-February 2025

In Ukraine, 900 thousand tons of milk were produced in January-February 2025, which is 3.5% lower than in the same period in 2024, reports the information and analytical agency Infagro.

Agricultural enterprises produced 1.7% more milk in February compared to February 2024. Considering that 2024 was a leap year, the annual increase in February was 5.3%, analysts note.

According to experts, as of March 1, there were 1.15 million cows in Ukraine, which is 8.4% less than on the same date last year. Official data on the number of cows in agricultural enterprises showed negative annual dynamics with a slight decrease of 0.1% as of March 1, 2024.

“In April, we should expect the dairy market to stabilize due to an increase in overall demand, therefore, the rate of decline in purchase prices will slow down, and price revision will become more selective,” Infagro noted.

At the same time, in March 2025, the purchase price of raw milk in Ukraine continued to fall, returning to approximately the level of September 2024. The price correction in March was more complex than in February. Competition for raw materials resumed due to the projected growth in the volume of promotional sales of dairy products on the domestic market and the intensification of European demand for Ukrainian goods, primarily butter.

Analysts noted that the supply of raw materials on the domestic market continues to increase. New production facilities and projects are being launched in the dairy industry. Therefore, the pressure on the price of milk remains.

The average price of raw materials in March 2025 in agricultural enterprises was UAH 16.6 per kilogram excluding VAT, which is 5.1% lower than in February, but 15% higher than in March 2024; the cost of raw materials for the population is UAH 10.5 per kilogram excluding VAT, which is 4.1% lower than in February, but 14% higher than in March 2024.

The range of purchase prices for milk at the end of March was mainly UAH 15.8-17.0 per kilogram excluding VAT for agricultural enterprises, and UAH 9.5-11.0 per kilogram excluding VAT for the population.

“The estimated milk production margin in March continued to decline rapidly. The average estimated operating margin in March was 15%, which is seven points less than in February and 29 points less than in March 2024,” Infagro reports.