Dragon Capital CEO sees over 50% chance of ceasefire agreement by Q1 2025

Tomas Fiala, founder and CEO of leading Ukrainian investment firm Dragon Capital, believes there is a greater than 50% chance of a ceasefire agreement in Russia's war against Ukraine by Q1 2025, especially following Donald Trump's U.S. election victory and his initial statements.

"I think, given the election results in the U.S. and Trump's early statements, there's now a more than 50% chance that a ceasefire agreement could be reached in the first quarter," Fiala told attendees at the European Business Association (EBA) general meeting in Kyiv on Tuesday, Interfax-Ukraine reported.

Fiala anticipates that such an agreement would lead to a significant reduction in the intensity of the war.

"But as we saw after 2015, following the Minsk II agreements, there were still provocations on the front lines and a lower-intensity conflict continued. This will likely be the case again, but the intensity could significantly decrease, the front could stabilize, and we might see fewer troop movements, less use of heavy weaponry, and fewer troops engaged on both sides," he said.

He added that a ceasefire, much like the one after 2015, would allow businesses greater operational stability and facilitate further European integration.

While Fiala is less optimistic about Ukraine joining the EU by 2030, he believes accelerated progress could make it feasible.

"According to the European Commission report published a few weeks ago, while we made progress over the past year, it was slower than needed to be fully positioned for EU membership ratification by 2030," he said.

However, Fiala emphasized that the EU integration process itself remains a strong motivator for increased investment.

EBA Executive Director Anna Derevyanko mentioned that the business community is hopeful for a ceasefire in 2025.

Meanwhile, National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) Governor Andriy Pyshnyy clarified that recent NBU forecasts no longer attempt to predict the war's duration, acknowledging the inaccuracy of initial estimates and the war's prolonged nature.