Russia is earning up to $150 million in additional revenue per day from oil sales amid rising prices, making it one of the main beneficiaries of the conflict in the Middle East.
This is reported by the Financial Times, citing industry data and analysts' estimates.
According to the newspaper, Russia has already received an estimated $1.3-1.9 billion in “windfall revenues” from oil export taxes after the de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz led to increased demand for Russian oil from India and China.
The US also eased sanctions against Russia and pressure on India not to buy Russian oil, prompting a significant number of tankers to head to the Indian Ocean.
According to FT calculations, based on industry data and analyst estimates, the Russian government could receive an additional $3.3-4.9 billion by the end of March if the average price of Russian Urals oil this month is $70-80 per barrel, rather than remaining close to the average of the previous two months of $52 per barrel.
According to a report by the International Energy Agency released on March 12, Russian crude oil and petroleum product exports fell by 11.4% in February to 6.6 million barrels per day, the lowest level since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
At the same time, the war in Iran gives Moscow the opportunity to partially restore revenues from oil sales, as the Persian Gulf countries face export disruptions due to the situation in the Strait of Hormuz.
Russian oil imports to India and China rose 22% in the week after the US and Israel launched a military operation against Iran, compared to the daily average in February, said Vaibhav Raghunandan, an analyst at the Center for Energy and Clean Air Research.
According to Kpler, the volume of Russian oil stuck in tankers at sea decreased by 11 million barrels to 125 million barrels at the beginning of the conflict in the Middle East.
The company's data shows that a significant amount of Russian oil is at sea, with most tankers heading across the Indian Ocean to Indian ports. Russian oil imports into India were 1.5 million barrels per day as of March 11, up 50% from the beginning of last month.
Kpler senior analyst Sumit Ritolia believes that if current supply rates are maintained, imports could increase to almost 2 million barrels per day.
“Russia is the main winner of this conflict,” he added.
According to Kpler estimates, India is currently buying Russian oil at about $5 per barrel more than Brent, a sharp contrast to previous discounts.
Analysts estimate that every $10 increase in the average monthly price of oil per barrel brings Russian oil exporters an additional $2.8 billion in revenue, of which the state receives $1.63 billion in taxes. According to rough estimates, this is $54 million in additional budget revenue every day.
It is noted that in the first 12 days of the war, Russia could receive an additional $110–160 million per day, or $1.3–1.9 billion. If this trend continues, additional budget revenues could amount to $3.3–5 billion per month.
However, analysts say Moscow needs current market conditions to persist for several more months to offset the drop in energy revenues at the beginning of the year.