Main points
- China condemned the US and Israeli operation against Iran, fearing certain consequences for itself.
- If the Iranian regime is overthrown, China may reconsider its relations with Russia and the United States, which could help end the war in Ukraine.
Operation in Iran could force China to end Russia's war against Ukraine / Getty Images, Collage of Channel 24
China has condemned the operation that the US and Israel have been conducting against Iran for several days. If the Iranian regime falls, it will have consequences for Beijing. And it will also have a strong impact on Russia.
- 1 Could China be providing covert support to Iran?
- 2 What can China do regarding Russia through Iran?
- 3 How can the operation in Iran bring the end of the war in Ukraine closer?
Beijing has called on the US and Israel to stop the operation and return to negotiations. Experts revealed specifically for Channel 24 what this could prompt Xi Jinping to do and what the consequences will be for the Kremlin.
Could China be providing covert support to Iran?
Former Secretary of the Polish Delegation to the NATO Parliament, Piotr Kulpa, believes that China is considering 2 options for action regarding the situation in Iran:
- The US is completely subjugating Iran, changing the regime, and destroying this country as an entity.
- Iran remains and will remain a strategic ally of Beijing, if only because it is an adversary of the United States of America.
According to him, after the previous strikes, Iran's capabilities have been restored. This would not have been possible without China's support.
He noted that Iran receives support from Russia. There is evidence, for example, the use of antennas for the “Shaheeds”. It also receives support from Belarus. Because at one time many vehicles went from Minsk to Tehran.
I think China will do everything to hide its involvement in supporting Iran,
– said Kulpa.
He added that Beijing has such opportunities. Take at least the canal through Afghanistan, which borders both China and Iran. After all, China supports its proxies – “keeps afloat” both North Korea and Russia, which without it would not be able to wage war and would simply collapse. The same applies to Iran.
How China can help Iran: watch the video
What can China do about Russia through Iran?
Former Ukrainian Foreign Minister and diplomat Volodymyr Ogryzko noted that Trump has been knocking everything out of the hands of the Russians lately.
Putin looks very pale,
– emphasized Ogryzko.
After all, the Russian dictator is noticeably losing influence, starting with the former republics of the Soviet Union. In particular, Azerbaijan and Armenia were pro-Russian, but became pro-American. The same, he added, applies to Syria and Venezuela, where regimes friendly to the Kremlin have been overthrown.
This, of course, affects the countries that are part of a kind of “axis of evil.” So, the diplomat noted, the Americans are somehow pulling out of this chain everyone for whom Russia was important and necessary.
China understands perfectly well that the situation is changing and clearly not in Putin's favor . After all, the Kremlin is demonstrating its powerlessness. In such a situation, in its opinion, Beijing will begin to think about coming to an agreement with the United States regarding Russia. It may be better and more profitable to divide it in the future than to quarrel with the Americans over it.
He reminded that a meeting between Trump and Xi Jinping is scheduled for April. Apparently, the topic of Russia will be raised at that meeting. Because since the Russian “bear” is already at the stage of breathing, we can already start talking about it.
By the way! Political scientist Oleg Posternak revealed the 3 cards Trump needs to “conquer” China. The first is Venezuela, which the American leader already has in his pocket. The second is Iran, which he is currently focused on. And the third is Russia, which Trump is trying to close as much as possible by April.
Therefore, the former minister stated, all the events that are currently taking place may prompt China to think that it is better to gradually start abandoning Russia in order to then seize at least part of Eastern Siberia for itself.
How can an operation in Iran bring the end of the war in Ukraine closer?
Artur Kharitonov, president of the NGO “Liberal Democratic League of Ukraine”, noted that the US dominates the situation with Iran. China has very limited tools of influence. If the regime in Iran, which is one of the pillars of Chinese influence, falls, it will hit Xi Jinping very hard.
According to him, this whole story is really about the US being able to subjugate the lion's share of the world's control over energy resources – oil and gas. The United States already dominates the field of liquefied natural gas, which is connected with Trump's “Arctic campaign” in Alaska, Canada and even Greenland.
The same, he noted, is true of Venezuela, which used to be a key supplier of very cheap oil to China. Now that oil has effectively become American.
What the operation in Iran could mean for China and Russia: watch the video
If the Iranian regime is toppled, China will lose its last trump card . After all, Xi Jinping was previously able to maneuver and pressure the United States, continuing the Russian war in Ukraine by restricting access to rare earth metals.
According to him, China still has Russia and Central Asia, which can generally bridge the gaps that will arise due to the prospect of the fall of the regime in Iran.
But it will also create a wider geopolitical space for the US, particularly in terms of forcing Xi Jinping to end Russia's war in Ukraine, that is, giving that order that many leaders talk about – one phone call,
Kharitonov said.
In addition, the president of the “Liberal Democratic League of Ukraine” NGO added, this will help intercept Chinese influence on the Kremlin. Because for Xi Jinping, it is unacceptable if Russia can sell oil and gas at inflated prices.
Therefore, he summarized, China is being destabilized before Trump's visit. And the probable elimination of the Iranian regime is a positive for Ukraine. Provided that this conflict does not last for months and years.
Latest news about the operation against Iran: what is known?
- On February 28, the US, together with Israel, launched military operation “Epic Fury” against Iran. The country is under continuous attack, and Tehran is literally being wiped off the face of the earth.
- According to the commander of the US Central Command, Brad Cooper, the strikes are aimed at targets that could pose a threat to the United States. More than 50,000 American troops and more than 200 fighter jets are participating in the operation.
- After the death of Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, a new one was elected – Mojtaba Khamenei, who is the son of the deceased. Israel, in turn, warned that any new leader of Iran would be a target for elimination. Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz stressed that his name would have no meaning, nor would it matter where he was hiding.