Main points
- Russia can use Belarus for hybrid pressure on Ukraine through provocations rather than a full-scale offensive.
- Kyiv has warned Minsk about the consequences of aggressive actions, and in case of provocations, the response will be swift and tough.
Is a new front being prepared through Belarus / Collage by Channel 24 (Photo by Getty Images)
Russia may try to use the territory of Belarus for hybrid pressure on Ukraine. This is not a full-scale offensive, but rather provocations and attempts to distract the forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
At the same time, the Ukrainian side has already warned Minsk about the consequences of any aggressive actions, says Konstantin Nemichev, founder of the KRAKEN unit.
Can Russia really use Belarus for an offensive?
Against the backdrop of statements by the Belarusian authorities and activity near the border with Ukraine, attention is growing to possible threats from the north. At the same time, from a military point of view, the Belarusian army is currently not ready for full-fledged combat operations and remains limited in its capabilities.
According to intelligence, Russia is considering a hybrid deployment of its troops from Belarus in conjunction with Belarusian units. This scenario would involve local actions aimed at destabilizing the situation rather than a large-scale offensive.
Of particular interest is the rhetoric of self-proclaimed President Alexander Lukashenko, who recently stated that the country is preparing for war and “there will be no peacetime.” Belarus has also signed a decree on the conscription of reserve officers, which is formally explained by planned measures to strengthen the mobilization reserve.
At the same time, the development of military infrastructure near the Ukrainian border is being recorded. This may indicate preparations for possible provocations or demonstrations of force.
This is not about a large-scale offensive, but about border provocations, creating tension in northern Ukraine, and an attempt to withdraw part of the Armed Forces of Ukraine from key areas in the east and south.
– says Nemichev.
He emphasizes that the main goal of such actions is to force Ukraine to transfer some of its troops from hot spots, weakening its defenses in the east and south.
At the same time, scenarios of an attack on large cities, in particular Kyiv, Lutsk, Zhytomyr or Rivne, are currently assessed as unlikely. The Ukrainian side has a sufficient level of preparation to respond promptly to any threats.
Ukraine has already sent a clear signal to the Belarusian leadership that provocations are unacceptable. If they are carried out, the response will be swift and tough, which will further deter escalation in this direction.
What is Russia really up to?
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The activation of the topic of a possible attack from Belarus is part of a well-thought-out Russian strategy, and not a sign of real preparations for a large-scale invasion. As military observer Vasyl Pekhno explains, the Kremlin is using this direction as a tool to pressure Ukraine.
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According to him, Vladimir Putin and Alexander Lukashenko are deliberately heating up the topic of war in order to force the Ukrainian command to change the location of troops. This is especially relevant against the backdrop of the difficult situation for Russian forces at the front.
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The main goal of this tactic is to pull some of the Ukrainian Armed Forces units away from key areas, particularly the east, where intense fighting is ongoing. Russia expects that Ukraine will be forced to shift forces north, weakening defenses in the Donetsk region.
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In addition, Moscow can use sabotage and reconnaissance groups or local provocations on the border. Such actions should create the illusion of a threat of a full-scale offensive and cause panic in the information space. The expert emphasizes that this is a classic hybrid strategy, aimed not only at military, but also at psychological effect. It allows Russia to influence the situation without significant resource costs.
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Despite loud statements, there are currently no real prerequisites for an attack on major Ukrainian cities. The Belarusian army remains limited in capabilities and is not ready for large-scale combat operations.