Main points
- In preparation for the parade, additional air defense systems are being deployed to the Russian capital, thereby “exposing” other regions.
- A window of opportunity opens for Ukraine when its drones can visit less protected areas of Russia, from where they took air defense for Moscow.
Russia is preparing for a parade on May 9. Additional air defense systems are being brought to Moscow, including being relocated from Kazan and Grozny. Several defense circles are planned to protect the capital. Putin was seriously scared.
This opinion was expressed on Channel 24 by Pavlo Lakiychuk, head of security programs at the Center for Global Studies “Strategy XXI”, noting that this is also indicated by Putin's phone call to Trump, when the Russian dictator initiated a ceasefire on May 9, fearing drone attacks from Ukraine.
How should Ukraine benefit from Moscow's increased security?
The head of security programs at the Center for Global Studies “Strategy XXI” explained that the head of the Kremlin today, despite his concerns, cannot cancel the parade in Moscow, because he has been promoting this event for years. Therefore, according to Lakiychuk, in 2026, Russians are taking unprecedented security measures on the eve of May 9.
All these measures should show the Russians that the war has come to Russia, and Moscow in particular. Since Putin is building up additional air defenses around the capital, this is a good excuse to strike at less protected regions,
– says Lakiychuk.
The Far East, Kamchatka, Sakhalin, and the Arctic zone, according to the head of security programs at the Center for Global Studies, have long been “exposed” due to regular attacks by Ukrainian drones on the Krasnodar Territory, in particular Tuapse. Lakiychuk noted that it is necessary to carefully monitor from which points the Russians are launching air defense systems and keep them under surveillance.
The North Caucasus was covered quite well, but the resources are being withdrawn from there, from the Leningrad Military District as well. It is arriving there quite a lot, Primorsk was burning again. I think it is worth repeating. Now there is a window of opportunity: from May 5 to 15,
– Lakiychuk said.
Note! The parade in Moscow in 2026 will be held without a demonstration of military equipment. The official explanation is that the operational situation does not allow this. However, according to political scientist and major of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Andriy Tkachuk, in fact, the Russian army already has limited resources due to the war and if it shows this, it will be a powerful blow to its reputation. According to him, Putin does not want to disgrace himself, and first of all, before his people.
Ukraine benefits from Moscow's strengthening of security
Recall that military observer Vasyl Pekhno is convinced that Ukraine has no interest in sending its drones to the parade on Red Square. He expressed the opinion that it would be more profitable for the Ukrainian side to strengthen Moscow's defenses, to transfer air defense systems there from other Russian territories, so that the Armed Forces of Ukraine could target such “bare” objects in a number of Russian regions.
Xi won't help anymore: Ukraine may be preparing a “surprise”
But according to political strategist Taras Zagorodny, one should not rule out the possibility that the Ukrainian side may have unexpected “bonuses” for the Russians on May 9. He recalled that in 2025, Ukraine staged “fireworks” during this period and the work of Russian airports was blocked.
Zagorodny also noted that last year Putin was not so concerned about the security of the parade because Xi Jinping was invited to the event. The Kremlin leader perceived him as a conditional umbrella, but this year the Chinese leader will not be on Red Square.