Main points
- Expert Oleksiy Yizhak believes that the probability of a Russian nuclear strike on Ukraine is almost eliminated due to the fear of the Russian leadership.
- In his opinion, Russia could carry out a massive non-nuclear strike to show its strength before the May 9 parade, but this is more of a sign of fear than a real threat.
The risk of Russia using nuclear weapons is almost eliminated / Collage of Channel 24
The so-called Russian military brass are threatening that Russia could strike Ukraine with nuclear weapons. In particular, they are talking about missile strikes on the Verkhovna Rada, the Office of the President, and the General Staff. However, the risk of the enemy using nuclear weapons is almost eliminated.
Oleksiy Yizhak, an expert at the National Institute for Strategic Studies, expressed his opinion to Channel 24 that Vladimir Putin is very scared on the eve of the parade on May 9. Therefore, he may take various steps to intimidate Ukraine.
“Russia has “blown away” with nuclear weapons. To use nuclear weapons, you need either inspiration or great desperation. And Russia no longer has inspiration and courage. I can't say that their leadership is so desperate as to bear individual responsibility for the use of weapons, because they are controlled by a narrow circle of people, and they still want to live and will not take such risks,” he emphasized.
Important! People's Deputy and Chairman of the National Security Committee Roman Kostenko commented on the likelihood of a nuclear strike. Russia cannot achieve success on the front, so it may resort to the use of nuclear weapons. Therefore, it is important for Ukraine to increase its readiness for a nuclear threat from Russia. He proposes to allocate the strategy of biological, chemical and nuclear security to a separate segment in the law on national security.
Is there a threat of a nuclear strike?
As noted by Oleksiy Yezhak, Russia did not declare that it was going to launch nuclear strikes. There are reports that the enemy may carry out a massive non-nuclear strike on the center of Kyiv with everything it has: “Oreshnik”, other means. The parade before May 9 is extremely important for the Kremlin, so they are doing everything to show the Russians and the world that it is supposedly Russia that sets the agenda. On the night of May 6, a truce began.
I think the bigger risk here is not that the Russians will make nuclear moves, that's almost out of the question. But that they will try to take steps in these days between the start of our ceasefire and the start of theirs that can be interpreted in different ways. That is, they seem to have struck somewhere, but they didn't. For example, they added a condition that the ceasefire should apply to occupied territories,
– the expert explained.
According to him, the occupiers are now making moves that seem like they will launch another “Oreshnik”, but this is a sign of their fear. They are afraid that their information policy will not work, and they will not be allowed to hold the parade. They are also sending a signal to their own population that this is not because Moscow is scared, but because Ukraine is afraid of Russia.
Of course, if there is an escalation, the Russians will try to do more, but it doesn't have to be the center of Kyiv. It could be any object that they can hit, so that it is tangible, loud and has social consequences. But they are afraid, first of all, of being disturbed during the parade,
– suggested the Hedgehog.
Can the Russians strike with the “Hazelnut”?
An expert from the National Institute for Strategic Studies believes that the “Oreshnik” is an old missile. There is a “launch elimination” procedure, when the missile can no longer be reliable, you can't put a nuclear warhead there, but you can launch it with something, with a certain load.
“They stuff metal garbage there and launch it straight into space. It falls approximately on the territory of Ukraine and creates an effect like a meteor shower. You can only shoot like that at night, because during the day you won't be able to see it, there will be sound, but there will be almost no consequences. The garbage fell, somewhere it hit apricots. Therefore, they can launch it, but it will be a sign of desperation, not strength,” Oleksiy Yizhak emphasized.
Pay attention! The commanding officer of the Nachtigall battalion with the call sign “Major Jmil” suggested that Ukraine is facing a nuclear strike from Russia. In his opinion, the enemy could potentially use its infamous Oreshnik missile or a nuclear warhead from the Pion self-propelled gun for this. It is currently unknown which locations the Russians may be considering for a strike.
Russia conducted missile tests: what is known?
-
Russia has announced nuclear-capable missile tests ahead of a May 9 parade in Moscow. They will take place at the Kura range in Ust-Kamchatka district. This is a key test site for the Space Forces of the Russian Aerospace Forces. It is used to test missile weapons, including intercontinental ballistic missiles.
-
As reported by the regional department of the Ministry of Emergency Situations, test strikes with missiles that can carry a nuclear charge will be carried out there from May 6 to 10. It is known that these are the first tests in the last 1.5 years.
Against this backdrop, Russian propagandists are threatening that Russia will launch a nuclear strike on key targets in Ukraine. They claim that they are capable of launching several Oreshnik missiles, about fifty cruise and ballistic missiles of all types, and about five hundred drones. It is worth noting that there is no real confirmation of these words.