Main points
- By 2050, climate change could cause 470,000 to 700,000 additional premature deaths each year due to increased physical inactivity.
- Economic losses from reduced productivity due to heat stress are estimated at $2.40 to $3.68 billion annually.
New health threat: scientists predict hundreds of thousands of deaths due to climate change / Collage 24 Channel/Depositphotos
The planet is getting hotter. This is affecting our lives in ways that go far beyond the discomfort of summer heat. A recent large-scale study has found an unobvious but fatal connection between temperature records and our ability to move.
The consequences of this phenomenon could change the structure of mortality in the world by mid-century. This will put millions of people in different parts of the Earth at risk, according to a study published in The Lancet.
How many people will die from warming and other effects?
The scientific community is sounding the alarm: climate change is provoking a global wave of physical inactivity. An international team of researchers analyzed data from 156 countries for the period from 2000 to 2022 to understand how rising temperatures are affecting people's daily habits.
The results were striking: each additional month during which the average temperature exceeds the threshold of 27.8 degrees Celsius causes a 1.44 percentage point increase in physical inactivity levels globally.
Low- and middle-income countries are most vulnerable to these changes, with the rate of decline in active lifestyles rising even faster, by 1.85 percentage points for each extremely warm month.
Scientists explain this by saying that heat creates significant physiological barriers. It increases the load on the cardiovascular system, accelerates dehydration, and increases the subjective feeling of fatigue. As a result, a simple walk or work in the fresh air turns into a grueling ordeal, forcing people to choose a sedentary lifestyle.
By 2050, these trends could lead to catastrophic consequences. Climate-related inaction is projected to cause between 470,000 and 700,000 additional premature deaths each year.
Economic consequences
In addition to the human toll, the world will face serious economic challenges. Reduced productivity due to poor health and inability to work in hot conditions will cost the global economy between $2.40 and $3.68 trillion annually.
Everyone perceives heat in their own way.
The study also found gender and age disparities in the perception of heat stress:
- Women were more sensitive to rising temperatures: their level of inactivity in extreme heat increased by 1.69 percentage points compared to 1.18 for men.
- A similar situation is observed among older people, whose bodies are less able to regulate their temperature.
Geographically, the “hot spots” will be Central America, the Caribbean, East Africa, and Equatorial Southeast Asia, where physical inactivity levels could increase by 4 percent or more.
Plans are disrupted
This situation threatens the implementation of the global goals of the World Health Organization, which planned to reduce the level of physical inactivity in the world by 15 percent by 2030, notes the Daily Mail. Instead of progress, humanity risks getting a “heat trap” that will only exacerbate the epidemic of non-communicable diseases such as obesity and cardiovascular disorders.
What to do?
To avert the gloomy predictions, researchers suggest taking immediate action. It is necessary to implement adaptive urban design: create shaded areas, use reflective materials for roads, and integrate water bodies into urban infrastructure.
Another important step is to subsidize affordable climate-controlled sports centers and develop special recommendations for safe activity in high temperatures.
Physical activity should not be perceived as a whim, but as a vital need that must be protected in the face of the climate crisis.