US Intelligence: Putin Has Not Abandoned Plans to Conquer Ukraine – WP

The Washington Post reports this, citing a source familiar with the intelligence analysis, Ukrinform reports.

The reports are not intended to analyze President Donald Trump’s diplomatic efforts to end the three-year conflict in Ukraine or the 30-day ceasefire negotiated this week by U.S. and Ukrainian officials. But they highlight the challenges facing Trump and his national security team and raise questions about whether the White House is misreading Putin’s willingness to negotiate peace.

One of the classified reports provided to Trump administration officials on March 6 indicated that Putin remained intent on influencing Kyiv, according to a person familiar with the document.

Read also: Putin passes Trump “additional information” and “signals” through Vitkov

Some current and former U.S. officials noted that even if the Russian leader agreed to a temporary ceasefire, he would use the opportunity to bolster and retool his military and would likely violate the agreement by staging a provocation he would blame on Ukraine. Other officials said the reports were more cautious about what peace terms Putin might accept. But they agreed that there was no sign that Putin had softened his demands to include Ukraine in Russia’s security and economic sphere.

Other analysts said they believed the talks could yield a positive outcome if Washington and the US got their priorities straight.

“For Putin to fight, he has to believe he can win the negotiations,” said Eric Ciaramella, a former U.S. intelligence official and Russia expert at Carnegie. “But that doesn’t guarantee his success. The key to a successful and sustainable cease-fire will be to create security arrangements for Ukraine that allow it to rebuild its military strength and prevent further attacks.”

While it is unclear whether Trump was personally briefed on the March 6 intelligence report, a source familiar with the matter said it was the type of analysis traditionally provided to the president.

Some U.S. assessments of Putin’s intransigence appear to irritate Trump, another person familiar with the matter said. Indeed, Trump and his aides have raised the prospect in recent days of imposing tough new sanctions on Russia if it refuses to end the war.

Meanwhile, a European intelligence official, citing intelligence gathered over the past month, said officials in Moscow believe Trump is weak, lacking clear principles and susceptible to manipulation.

A European intelligence official noted that if a permanent ceasefire is reached, Moscow would likely return to “hybrid” or non-military methods of undermining Ukraine, as it did in 2014 after the annexation of Crimea and in eastern Ukraine, and during the full-scale invasion in 2022.

These methods include economic and diplomatic pressure; infiltration of Ukrainian elites, business circles, security services and the military; and exerting influence through the Russian Church in Ukraine, the official added. Russia's leaders have long portrayed Zelensky as a Western puppet and sought to undermine his legitimacy.