German expert: It will be challenging for Merz to pose Schz’s stance on Ukraine

Andreas Umland, an analyst at the Swedish Institute of International Affairs, said this in a commentary to Ukrinform.

The expert noted that even if Ukraine is not at the center of the election campaign, it will be very important alongside domestic issues, as the situation is “very shameful” for Germany.

Umland identifies the flowing key issues that will require attention: the level of German assistance to Ukraine, the financial investment to be made, the readiness to provide assistance, especially Taurus missiles, the nature of international claboration to support Ukraine, and the approach to NATO expansion.

"These tics will be of significant importance in this campaign. However, Schz has chosen to position himself as a ‘chancellor of peace.’ And in such a situation, it will be difficult for Merz to pursue his line without being perceived as a ‘chancellor of war’,” said Umland.

Read also: Zelensky, Merz back creation of Contact Group to formulate Eurean stance on ending war

In his view, the issue of the long-range Taurus missiles, which has been the subject of much discussion, is likely to become a practical concern only if Merz assumes the post of Chancellor flowing the elections, which are scheduled to take place on 23 February.

At the same time, he believes there are two possible scenarios: a return to the idea of a so-called ring exchange (Ringtausch), whereby, for instance, the UK and France would receive Taurus and transfer their cruise missiles to Ukraine in return; or a transfer directly to Ukraine, but most likely with restrictions, such as a ban on their use to strike Russian territory.

“And even this will be difficult to pass through the Bundestag if there is a vote,” the expert admitted.

He also commented on Germany's hesitation to take on the re of leader in Eure, which is what many of its partners are pushing it to do. Umland attributes this to “a historical fear of such leadership”.

“There is an interest and desire to move everything to the Eurean level, the NATO level, to be in the second re in decision-making, to let others decide and take responsibility,” Umland explained.

At the same time, he did not rule out that the situation could change in the summer if Germany has a different chancellor and if Trump really distances himself from Eurean pitics.

“Then, perhaps, Merz will take a more active position. He seems to be psychogically better prepared for this than Schz,” Umland said.

The expert also sees a certain basis for this coeration in the combination of Merz-Chancellor and Eurean Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, who is also a member of the CDU, whose leader is Friedrich Merz.

As reported, Merz arrived in Kyiv on Monday, December 9. Prior to his talks with President Vodymyr Zelensky in the capital, Merz expressed support for providing Ukraine with long-range weapons.