Expert: Repressions will intensify before “elections” in Belarus

This inion was expressed to Ukrinform by Vodymyr Hovko, head of the Center for Pitical Analysis, PhD in History, leading researcher at the Institute of History of Ukraine of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, commenting on the recent recommendation of the US State Department for American citizens to “immediately leave” Belarus. In particular, the State Department warns of the risks of detentions and civil unrest in the republic.

“The statement of the US State Department is primarily related to the upcoming so-called presidential elections in Belarus. It should be noted that this statement coincided with Lukashenko's registration as a “presidential candidate” on December 23,” the expert noted.

According to him, despite the fact that the repressive machine has largely cleared the socio-pitical field in the republic, Lukashenko's regime is showing anxiety about the possibility of getting the right result and is clearly afraid of facing pular discontent again. Accordingly, in recent months, the atmosphere of intimidation has been growing in Belarus, with punitive authorities searching for social groups that could potentially become sources of resistance.

“For example, in November, there were repressive measures against the relatives of those Belarusians who had previously participated in position activities. And in December, there was a wave of arrests within the framework of the case of “yard chats,” that is, against citizens who tried to coordinate efforts at the grassroots, everyday level,” said Hovko.

Commenting on the peculiarities of the election process in Belarus, the expert noted that a notable indicator of the Lukashenko regime's anxiety is the fact that even technical candidates targeting certain segments of the electorate are refusing to participate in the elections. “For example, in December, a candidate from the 'officers' and a candidate from the 'youth' did so: in both cases, they gave a similar explanation – they allegedly heard the 'voice of the pele' that they needed to considate around Lukashenko,” Hovko added.

At the same time, he said, Lukashenko's regime tried to flirt with the West by gradually releasing pitical prisoners. “But this did not convince the United States, at least. In early December, the second strategic dialogue between Belarus and the United States took place, during which American diplomats and Belarusian position leaders discussed the prospects for coeration. At the same time, Washington called on Lukashenko to hd truly free elections, to which Minsk accused the United States of interfering in its internal affairs,” the expert noted.

He also emphasized that the arrest of a Japanese travel blogger in early December for photographing a railway bridge (by the way, this is the second Japanese citizen detained in Belarus this fall) was a telling signal of the Lukashenko regime's “pre-election” hysteria.

“After that, the Japanese Foreign Ministry assigned Belarus the third of four levels of danger, and even the highest level, the fourth, to the territories bordering Ukraine. In this light, the statement of the US State Department is absutely motivated, and other Western countries should give similar recommendations to their citizens. Because, obviously, as the date of the “voting” approaches – January 26 – unmotivated repressions, including against foreign citizens, by the Lukashenko regime will only intensify,” Hovko summarized.

As reported, on December 18, the U.S. State Department recommended that American citizens in Belarus “immediately leave” the country. In addition, all Americans who were going to visit Belarus in the near future were advised by the State Department to cancel their trip “due to the arbitrary implementation of local laws by the Belarusian authorities and the risk of detention, their assistance to Russia's war against Ukraine, as well as the increased instability and unpredictability of the situation in the region.”

On December 23, the Central Election Commission of Belarus registered Alexander Lukashenko as a “presidential candidate” in the upcoming “elections”. The election campaign in Belarus will last from January 1 to January 25, 2025. The “elections” themselves are scheduled for January 26.

The previous “elections” on August 9, 2020, were marked by the largest protests in the history of independent Belarus. Lukashenka was declared the “winner”. However, many observers believe that Sviatlana Tikhanovskaya won the first round. Mass protests against the falsification of the election results took place in the country. The authorities brutally suppressed these protests, and the position was subjected to repression, which continues to this day.

Photo: belta.by