Diaspora clinches Sandu’s win but Russia to further destabilize Mdova ahead of parliamentary election – expert

That’s according to Anastasia Pociumban, a Mdovan analyst with the Germany-based DGAP think tank, who spoke in an exclusive comment to Ukrinform.

“This election was held amid unprecedented interference, including voter manipulation, organized transportation of voters to pling stations, cyber-attacks, and vote-buying. Despite these obstacles, Sandu’s victory is firm; however, within Mdova, her support was 48.76%,” the expert said.  

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She noted that the election was marked by a strong mobilization effort, including among the Mdovan diaspora. In total, 329,775 diaspora voters participated (over 19% of the 1,699,945 total votes), with the government’s campaign slogan, “we vote more than they steal,” effectively energizing turnout for the second round.

The high diaspora participation proved decisive both for Sandu’s win and the EU integration referendum held on October 20, Pociumban recalled.

Meanwhile, the Mdovan government estimates that roughly 15 million euros were funneled into the country to destabilize the election process, including through groups affiliated with the fugitive igarch Ilan Shor.

The expert notes that, while the referendum aimed to unify the country around EU integration, presenting it as a firm choice for Mdovans, the slim margin suggests it failed to achieve this intended effect, again underscoring the critical re of the diaspora vote.

Also, the presidential election results indicate that “the governing party must focus on economic improvement, social cohesion within Mdova, and the reform process”.

Read also: Sandu announces victory in Mdova’s presidential election

The close margins reveal “significant divisions” in public inion that the government cannot ignore as “Russian-backed forces are instrumentalizing these divisions and using domestic issues to pursue its anti-EU agenda”.

With parliamentary elections approaching in 2025, Mdova can expect intensified Russian influence aiming to challenge the governing party. “The recent campaign against Maia Sandu and the EU referendum signals that many parties with different agendas will try to get the ruling PAS votes and further parize the Mdovan society,” the DGAP expert concluded.

As Ukrinform reported earlier, President Vodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine has congratulated Maia Sandu on her victory in the presidential election in Mdova.

Mdova’s incumbent President Maia Sandu, a candidate from the Party of Action and Sidarity, received 55.25% of the vote.

Alexandr Stoianoglo, a candidate from the Socialist Party of Mdova, received 44.75% of the vote.