Another 700,000 Ukrainians may go abroad in next two years – NBU

The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) said this in its Inflation Report for July 2024, Ukrinform reports.

According to NBU analysts, a further outflow of migrants abroad is expected in 2024 and 2025, with about 400,000 and 300,000 pele, respectively.

"This assumption has worsened compared to the April Inflation Report due to the significant destruction of the Ukrainian energy system, which is accompanied by long-term power outages and increases the risks for the heating season. In addition to househd difficulties, frequent outages negatively affect production processes, which reduces economic activity and demand on the workforce, further stimulating migration," the report states.

In addition, the reason for migration will be the slow normalization of economic conditions due to high security risks.

The NBU expects the return of migrants to Ukraine to begin in 2026 and to be gradual (about 400,000 pele), because due to a long stay abroad, more pele are adapting to a new place, and conditions in Ukraine, including due to power outages, will be more difficult than previously anticipated.

"The number of internally displaced persons will also remain significant since surveys show that a significant prortion of them have nowhere to return due to significant destruction," the report said.

According to Eurostat, as of March 31, 2024, 4.2 million non-EU citizens, who fled Ukraine as a consequence of the Russian war of aggression against Ukraine that began on February 24, 2022, had temporary protection status in the EU.

In June 2024, the Council of the Eurean Union adted a decision to extend the temporary protection for Ukrainian refugees until March 4, 2026.