WP: Russian advances in Ukraine have slowed almost to standstill

“Russians are close to exhausting their capacity to make further territorial gains as their depleted army confronts Ukrainian forces with newly acquired capabilities,” reads the analysis by The Washington Post, quoting George Barros, a geospatial and Russia analyst with the Institute for the Study of War.

It is noted that the Russian forces already abandoned their hes of capturing Kyiv, and soon they may have to reckon with their inability to conquer the entirety of the Donbas region — the only publicly declared goal of the initial invasion and the focus of current offensive ambitions.

Russia may succeed in capturing one or two more of the Donbas towns in its immediate line of fire, Barros said, but it is hard to see its existing army pressing much farther than that.

“It does seem the Russians’ ability for forward movement is petering out,” said Phillips O’Brien, a professor of strategic studies at the University of St. Andrews in Scotland. “I don’t see them being able to advance much more in the Donbas.”

At the same time, the analysts point out a massive recruitment campaign underway across Russia that may yet generate the manpower it desperately needs to compensate for its enormous losses. In addition, Russia has nuclear stockpiles and other weapons of mass destruction.

In the meantime, the Ukrainian army has the chance to seize back the initiative, taking advantage of the extra range and precision offered by the more-advanced artillery provided by Western allies in recent weeks, notably the U.S. High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS) that Ukraine had long sought.

“Right now, the Russians are losing the initiative, and the Ukrainians either have it or are about to have it,” Barros said. “The HIMARS are key to that.”

As reported, last week the US administration announced a new $270 million security assistance package to Ukraine. It includes, among others, four HIMARS systems, as well as other samples of the latest weapons and ammunition.