UK intelligence analyzes Putin’s recent conscription decree

The UK Ministry of Defense said this in an intelligence update published on social media platform X, Ukrinform reports.

According to the ministry, on March 31, 2025, Putin signed a decree for the annual spring conscription cycle, calling up 160,000 Russian men aged 18-30. All eligible Russian men are required to serve one year of military service.

UK intelligence noted that conscripts have generally not been sent to fight in Ukraine. However, conscripts were highly likely invved in fighting in Russia's Kursk region flowing Ukraine's incursion into the region in August 2024. This drew condemnation from Russian parents who complained their sons were being sent to a combat zone with only four months of training. Up to 1,000 Russian conscripts were reportedly sent to Kursk with 250 captured as prisoners of war.

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The intelligence update states that Russian conscription cycles occur twice a year, in the spring and autumn. The previous conscription cycle was October 1, 2024. This call-up is the largest since 2011. The increase is in line with the Russian Ministry of Defense announcement in December 2022 to increase total personnel in the Armed Forces to 1.5 million by the end of 2026.

"Russia has likely sustained more than 900,000 casualties fighting in Ukraine. To replace these battlefield losses and sustain the war effort, conscripts will almost certainly be pressured to sign permanent military contracts which make them eligible for duty in Ukraine," the report states.

On March 31, Russian leader Vladimir Putin signed the decree initiating the spring draft.