Share of Russian drones “lost” due to EW increased to 45% over past two months – ISW

According to Ukrinform, this was reported in a study by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

ISW analysts cite comments by Ukrainian military expert Petro Chernyk, who noted that Russia has increased the production of Shahed drone airframes while continuing to rely on Iranian or Chinese imports for other drone components. Chernyk’s statements accord with ISW's October 2024 assessment that Russia uses domestic Shahed-type drone production for its attacks on Ukraine. This dynamic is reflected in the composition of the strike packages that Russia launched at Ukraine between October and November 2024, as it has become more common for Russian forces to launch between 80 to 100 (or more) Shahed and decoy drones. For example, Russian forces launched 110 Shahed drones and other unspecified drones at Ukraine on the night of December 1 to 2.

At the same time, Ukraine has become increasingly effective in addressing these threats, the analysts write. The number of Shahed-type or decoy drones that are reportedly "lost" (do not reach their intended targets) due to Ukrainian electronic warfare (EW) interference increased significantly over the course of October and November 2024. For example, on October 2, Russia launched 105 Shahed-type drones at Ukraine; Ukrainian forces shot down 78, and 23 were “lost” due to EW interference, according to Ukraine’s Air Force. By comparison, on the night of December 1 to 2, Russian forces launched 110 Shahed-type drones and decoys, of which 50 were “lost” due to EW interference, while Ukrainian forces shot down 52. This represents an increase in drones lost due to EW interference from 22% in October to 45% by December.

Read also: Ukrainian forces shoot down 22 Russian drones

Chernyk noted that Ukraine has improved its EW capabilities to the extent where Ukrainian forces can either "ground" the Shaheds, cause them to get "lost," or cause them to deviate their paths and fly into Russian or Belarusian airspace.

Ukrainian EW interference is significantly impacting the performance of these Russian strike packages and adding an increased burden on the joint Russian-Belarusian air defense umbrella.

As reported by Ukrinform, an investigation by the Associated Press found that the Russian foces employ decoy drones alongside thermobaric drones to deplete Ukraine’s air defense resources.