The Ukrainian government has approved two scenarios for macroeconomic and social development for 2026–2028, predicting an increase in real GDP in 2026 of 4.5% or 2.4%, depending on the circumstances. The inflation rate is expected to be 8.6% and 9.9%, respectively.
Resolution No. 946 of August 6 presented an optimistic scenario, which assumes an acceleration of GDP growth to 5% in 2027 and 5.7% in 2028 with inflation decreasing to 7.1% and 5.6%. A more conservative scenario predicts GDP growth of 4.7% in 2027 and 4.5% in 2028 with inflation decreasing to 9.7% and 7.5%.
The first scenario assumes that in 2026 the number of economically active citizens aged 15 to 70 will be 13 million people, and by 2028 this figure will increase to 13.2 million. The second scenario predicts similar figures, but 0.2 million less.
Under the optimistic model, the unemployment rate is expected to increase from 12.9% in 2026 to 13.3% in 2027, before declining to 12.8% in 2028. The conservative model sees unemployment steadily increasing from 12.6% in 2026 to 13.1% in 2028.
The average monthly wage, adjusted for inflation, is expected to grow annually by 6.5–8.9% under the first scenario and by 4.6–5.1% under the second.
In terms of trade, the optimistic forecast is for exports to increase by 14.3% in 2026, while imports will grow by only 2.7%. The second scenario assumes exports will grow by 5.9% and imports by 7.9%. As a result, the trade deficit in the first scenario will amount to US$34.71 billion, compared to US$44.46 billion in the second scenario.
The resolution does not indicate which of the two scenarios will be used for the 2026 state budget.
As previously reported, the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) updated its macroeconomic forecast in July. The baseline scenario now assumes only a moderate economic recovery with GDP growth of 2.3% in 2026, which is lower than the 3.7% expected in the April inflation report. The inflation forecast for 2026 was also revised upwards from 5% to 6.6%.
“At the same time, if conditions normalize more quickly, private investment and consumption could increase significantly and offset the impact of rapid fiscal consolidation, with GDP growth potentially reaching 3–3.5%,” the NBU added.
In addition, the NBU worsened its forecast for 2025, predicting GDP growth at 2.1% (compared to 3.1%) and inflation at 9.7% (compared to 8.7%).
The Ministry of Economy of Ukraine maintains its forecast for real GDP growth in 2025 at 2.6–2.7%.
Real GDP in the first quarter of 2025 increased by 0.9% after declining by 0.1% in the fourth quarter of 2024. The NBU estimates GDP growth in the second quarter of 2025 at 1.1% year-on-year, which is lower than the previously forecast value of 1.6%.
Ukraine’s GDP growth slowed to 2.9% in 2024 from 5.5% in 2023, after a sharp 28.8% decline in 2022, the first year of Russia’s full-scale invasion, according to the State Statistics Service.
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