According to preliminary estimates, the cost of restoring and reconstructing Ukraine will exceed half a trillion US dollars.

The fourth Rapid Damage and Needs Assessment (RDNA4), conducted jointly by the European Commission, the World Bank, the Government of Ukraine and the United Nations, with the support of other partners, was published yesterday. The 200-plus page report takes stock of three years of ongoing Russian invasion, assessing damage and losses – economic, social and monetary – and providing projections of recovery and reconstruction needs over a ten-year period. As of 31 December 2024, the total cost of recovery and reconstruction in Ukraine is $530.26 billion, which exceeds Ukraine’s annual GDP. At the same time, losses incurred by individual sectors of the Ukrainian economy, especially the energy sector, have increased by tens of billions of dollars in the past year alone. Below are additional figures and expert opinions.

LOST ASSETS

It should be noted that the damage estimates presented in the report cover only those facilities that were completely destroyed or damaged as a result of the fighting and do not take into account the value of facilities and infrastructure that Ukraine has temporarily lost control over due to the enemy occupation of territories in the south and east of the country, as well as the potential value of minerals that are currently unavailable to the Ukrainian government due to the Russian invasion.

According to the report, the total direct damage to buildings and infrastructure alone reached $176 billion, indicating an increase of $24 billion over the past year compared to the $152 billion estimated in the third report (DNA3).

The bulk of this increase is due to damage to Ukraine’s energy sector. Asset losses, including power generation, transmission, and distribution infrastructure, due to increased enemy attacks increased by 93 percent, while the number of facilities destroyed and damaged by Russian missile and drone attacks in 2024 increased by 70 percent compared to 2023. This brings the direct damage to the energy and mining sectors to more than $20 billion.

As Ukrainian Energy Minister Herman Galushchenko noted, the sector has experienced more than 30 massive attacks during three years of full-scale war. Moreover, Ukraine has lost 18 GW of power generation capacity located in territories now under Russian control.

“On December 12 last year, our energy system experienced the largest attack in its history, when about three hundred missiles and drones attacked simultaneously… The attacks have changed, they have become more large-scale, modern types of weapons have been used, including missiles with cluster warheads, more and more often. There have been more than 30 such large-scale attacks [on Ukraine's energy system during three years of Russia's aggressive war]. We are not even counting the daily attacks. Because our energy system is attacked every day, every night,” the energy minister said.

Photo courtesy of DTEK Group

Last year, 10 GW of electricity was lost or disabled as a result of such attacks. That's roughly equivalent to the peak consumption of countries like the Netherlands or Finland.

Trade and industry suffered losses of over $17 billion, almost on par with energy. Direct losses to education and science are estimated at over $13 billion, while the agricultural sector suffered losses of around $11 billion.

Total losses to the transportation and housing sectors were even higher, estimated at $37 billion and $57 billion, respectively. An estimated 13 percent of the total housing stock was damaged or completely destroyed, including 2.5 million homes that sustained varying degrees of damage.

About 72 percent of the damage was inflicted on the frontline regions of Ukraine: Donetsk, Kharkiv, Luhansk, Zaporizhia and Kherson, whose total losses amount to $116 billion, as well as on the Kyiv region, which suffered significant losses in the first weeks of the war and is now one of the priority targets for Russian missile and drone strikes.

Marta Kos. Photo courtesy of Katya Kodba/via STA

“The assessment confirms the enormous damage that Russia has caused to Ukraine. The EU is already supporting Ukraine's reconstruction and recovery efforts by mobilising more private investment through the Ukrainian Investment Framework Programme and helping the country integrate more deeply into the EU single market. This will guarantee Ukraine's recovery and create new opportunities for Ukrainian and European businesses,” said EU Commissioner for Neighbourhood and Enlargement Marta Kos.

The report's authors estimate total economic, social and other monetary losses at nearly $589 billion, which