Main points
- Soybean prices rose to a 20-month high on expectations of new biofuel quotas in the US and a new trade deal with Indonesia.
- Soybean futures hit their highest level since June 2024, and soybean oil prices rose 1.6% on rising demand and export volumes.
Soybean prices are rising / Photo Unsplash
Global soybean prices rose to their highest level in nearly two years on expectations of new biofuel quotas in the US. The market was also supported by strong demand for soybean meal and a new trade deal with Indonesia.
World soybean prices are rising
Soybean futures rose to a 20-month high on Thursday ahead of the Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) submission of new biofuel blending regulations, known as Renewable Volume Obligations, which are expected to be submitted to the White House budget office soon.
The decision is expected to help ease months of uncertainty about demand in the U.S. agricultural sector, Deputy Administrator Aaron Szabo said at an industry conference.
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Corn and soybean oil are key raw materials for biofuel production, so farmers are closely watching the adoption of rules, which could appear as early as March. At the same time, analysts note that some of the optimism about demand is already built into prices. According to StoneX expert Matt Ammermann, the market is showing partial profit fixation in the vegetable oil segment before the official submission of quotas.
Note! The market was further supported by rising prices for soybean meal . Exports of this high-protein feed from the US are expected to increase following the conclusion of a US$38.4 billion trade deal between the US and Indonesia.
According to analysts at Hightower Report, meal exports have already reached a six-year high, and the new agreement provides for additional purchases of American products in 2026.
Interestingly, against these factors, soybean futures rose another 0.4%, briefly reaching their highest level since June 2024, even despite the lack of new purchases from China, the world's largest consumer. At the same time, soybean oil prices rose 1.6%.
Brazil prepares for record harvest of 353.4 million tons: which crops yielded the most?
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In the 2025/26 marketing year, Brazil expects a record harvest of 353.4 million tons thanks to the expansion of planted areas, especially soybeans.
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Domestic corn consumption will rise to a historic high of 90.5 million tons due to the development of ethanol production, while exports will increase to 46.5 million tons.