Main points
- The Chinese market may become a key support for Ukrainian barley producers in the 2026/27 season, as increased demand from China can affect the price situation.
- Weather risks in Australia may limit its export opportunities, potentially strengthening the competitive position of Ukrainian barley in Asian and Middle Eastern markets.
China buys Ukrainian barley / Photo Unsplash
The global barley market enters the 2026/27 season with mixed signals — production and stocks are growing, but demand from major importers is weakening. For Ukraine, China and weather risks in Australia may again play a key role.
Crop growth changes market balance
The global barley market enters the 2026/27 season under the influence of several factors, which create mixed expectations for traders and farmers. According to UkrAgroConsult, the key challenge will be the imbalance between higher supply and subdued demand.
Global barley production is expected to increase to 155 million tonnes. Opening stocks are also expected to increase to 21.3 million tonnes, putting pressure on price dynamics in the new season.
Analysts believe that it is the combination of high supply and weaker demand that will be the determining factor for the market in the coming months.
Large importers may reduce purchases
An additional risk to world trade is the likely reduction in imports from key barley buyers, primarily Turkey, China, and Iran, which traditionally account for a significant share of global demand.
Reduced purchases by these countries could change trade flows and increase competition among exporters. At the same time, the situation does not look unambiguously negative, as some leading suppliers may face production cuts.
In particular, smaller harvests are forecast in the countries of the Southern Hemisphere, which could limit export potential and partially contain the fall in prices on the world market.
China and weather may support Ukrainian barley
For Ukraine, the main factor in the 2026/27 season remains the Chinese market. It was the active demand from China that was one of the drivers of prices at the beginning of last season.
If Chinese importers intensify purchases in July, this could support demand for Ukrainian barley of the new harvest and have a positive impact on the price situation.
The market is also paying special attention to the possible formation of El Niño in 2026. The risk of drought in Australia could reduce its export opportunities, which will potentially strengthen the competitive position of Ukrainian and Black Sea barley in general in the markets of Asia and the Middle East.
Interesting! On the Ukrainian market, barley prices in May 2026 fluctuate depending on volume and purpose. Grain traders offer wholesale lots from 9,400 to 9,600 hryvnias per ton (on terms of self-delivery or at ports). At retailers or on marketplaces, prices are about 11–13 hryvnias per kilogram .
EU sharply increases grain exports: barley shows record growth
European Union countries have significantly increased grain exports in the new marketing year. The largest increase was shown by barley, whose supplies increased sharply.
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EU countries increased grain exports by 16% to 32.7 million tons in the 2025/26 marketing year.
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Barley exports increased by 80%, while corn decreased by 23% compared to the previous year.
Analysts note that the structure of exports is changing under the influence of the global situation and demand for individual crops. At the same time, overall indicators remain positive due to the growth in barley and wheat supplies.