Main points
- USDA analysts predict an increase in sunflower production in Ukraine to 13.5 million tons in 2026/27.
- Exports of sunflower oil are expected to increase to 5.1 million tons and meal to 3.5 million tons.
Ukraine is increasing sunflower production / Photo Unsplash
Analysts from the US Department of Agriculture predict a significant increase in sunflower production in Ukraine in the 2026/27 marketing year. An increase in the production and export of sunflower oil and meal is also expected.
Sunflower production in Ukraine will increase significantly
According to USDA analysts, in the 2026/27 marketing year, Ukrainian farmers will harvest about 13.5 million tons of sunflower. This is 2.5 million tons more than in the current season, which means an increase of about 23%.
An increase in crop processing volumes is also forecast. In particular, sunflower oil production could reach 5.63 million tons. This is almost 19% more than in the current season.
Positive dynamics are also expected in the sunflower meal segment. According to the USDA forecast, its production in Ukraine will increase to 5.4 million tons, which will exceed current figures by almost 0.9 million tons.
Ukraine will increase exports of oil and meal
Along with the increase in production, analysts predict a more active growth in exports of sunflower processed products.
In particular, sunflower oil exports from Ukraine in the 2026/27 marketing year may amount to 5.1 million tons. This is 17% more than in the current season. Deliveries of sunflower meal abroad are forecast to increase to 3.5 million tons.
An increase in sunflower exports is also expected. The volume could reach 100,000 tons, which would double the figure for the current marketing year.
The global sunflower market is also showing growth
The USDA forecasts global sunflower production to increase to 61.8 million tons in the 2026/27 marketing year, about 7 million tons more than the previous season.
Global production of sunflower oil could increase to 23.5 million tonnes and of meal to 24.7 million tonnes. International trade in processed products is also expected to increase.
According to analysts' estimates, global exports of sunflower oil will amount to 15.6 million tons, and sunflower meal – 10.4 million tons.
What are the current prices for sunflower in Ukraine?
Purchase prices for commercial sunflower in Ukraine in May 2026 are within UAH 28,000 – 32,500 per ton, depending on the region, payment terms (with VAT/without VAT), and quality indicators of oil content.
Average purchase prices by region and processors:
- Maximum offers: Processing plants and large traders on the Trypillya portal declare prices up to 31,000 – 32,500 hryvnias per ton with delivery to the plant (CPT).
- Prices excluding VAT: Basic purchases by agrotraders (for example, on the Agrotender platform) start at 28,200 hryvnias per ton in Cherkasy, Kirovohrad, and Dnipropetrovsk regions.
- Small oil mills: Local processors (such as Deivska oil mill in Poltava region) accept raw materials at a price of 23,000 – 27,700 hryvnias per ton, adjusting the cost depending on the actual oil content (base rate – 48%).
Ukraine becomes a leader: China has increased purchases of sunflower meal several times
In addition to increasing sunflower production, Ukrainian processors are increasing the supply of value-added sunflower products. For example, exports of sunflower meal to China have significantly increased.
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In March, China increased imports of sunflower meal to 352 thousand tons, where Ukraine became the largest supplier with 233 thousand tons.
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Ukraine also achieved record rapeseed meal exports, refocusing on Asian markets, including China, Turkey, and Israel.
Shipments to the European Union fell by almost 49 percent, while China became the largest importer of Ukrainian meal for the first time. In addition, shipments to Turkey and Israel increased significantly, indicating a reorientation of Ukrainian exporters to new markets.