Main points
- Cocoa prices have fallen by more than 70% after a record high in 2024 due to lower demand and improved harvests.
- Despite the decline in the price of raw materials, manufacturers are using expensive stocks or new recipes with reduced cocoa content, and demand for chocolate remains weak.
Cocoa is getting cheaper / Photo Freepik
World cocoa prices have fallen sharply after a record high in 2024. This gives hope for cheaper chocolate, but at the same time changes the very structure of the market.
Falling prices change the market balance
After a meteoric rise in 2024, the cocoa market is in a sharp reversal, Bloomberg reports. Futures have fallen more than 70% from their peak, reflecting lower demand and improved harvests.
Cheaper raw materials are gradually making their way through supply chains, potentially lowering the cost of chocolate products. However, for now, manufacturers are still using expensive stocks or recipes with reduced cocoa content.
Cocoa processing volumes remain weak in the first quarter, analysts said. In Europe, the largest consumer market, they fell by about 6%, reaching their lowest level in more than a decade. A similar trend is seen in Asia, while the decline in North America is less pronounced.
New recipes and changing consumption
Despite the drop in raw material prices, a full recovery in demand is not expected. Many manufacturers have already adapted their recipes, reducing the proportion of cocoa or replacing it with alternative ingredients.
These changes could be long-term, as companies seek to protect themselves from future price shocks. At the same time, there is growing interest in products without cocoa or using vegetable fats as substitutes for cocoa butter.
Demand is also being affected by consumers cutting back on spending due to the general increase in the cost of living. Chocolate sales in North America are already showing a decline, and some buyers are consciously giving up sweets during the holidays.
Important! Experts note that the industry is entering a new phase, where manufacturers are forced to seek a balance between price, formulation, and consumer expectations.
Coffee at the price of gold: in Brazil, a rare variety is sold for 50 times more than Arabica
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Farmer Luis Paulo Dias Pereira Filho from Brazil grows a rare variety of coffee, Eugenioides, which costs up to 1 million Brazilian reais for 10 bags, which is 50 times more expensive than Arabica.
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Eugenioides has a unique sweet taste and is almost caffeine-free, attracting buyers from Taiwan and Saudi Arabia, despite the difficulty of cultivation and low yield.