Main points
- Global sugar prices have fallen to their lowest level in 5 years due to falling demand and an expected oversupply, particularly due to the popularity of weight loss drugs.
- Weight loss drugs, such as GLP-1 injections, have changed consumers' eating habits, reducing their consumption of sweets, which has contributed to lower sugar prices.
Why has sugar become cheaper / Photo Pixabay
The global sugar market is experiencing a prolonged price decline amid weaker demand and an expected oversupply. One new factor is the popularity of weight loss drugs that are changing consumers' eating habits.
Sugar prices have fallen sharply worldwide
Global sugar prices fell to their lowest level in more than five years last week as demand continued to weaken. The Financial Times reports that the spread of weight loss drugs is helping to reduce consumption of sweets as more people prefer protein-rich foods.
Prices have extended a five-month decline, with expectations of a global surplus weighing on the market. Analysts at trader Czarnikow predict a sugar surplus in the 2026/27 season of about 3.4 million tons, which will contribute to further stockpiling.
On the London Stock Exchange, May white sugar futures fell 3.3 percent in a week to $397.1 per tonne, while in New York, cane sugar prices fell to their lowest since October 2020. Traders attribute this to a faster-than-expected slowdown in consumption in the US and other developed countries.
How did weight loss drugs lower sugar prices?
A significant factor has been the popularity of GLP-1 injections that induce feelings of satiety, including Novo Nordisk's Wegovy and Ozempic, and Eli Lilly's Mounjaro and Zepbound. Analysts expect their impact on demand to only increase.
According to representatives of the brokerage company Marex, the industry has been caught off guard by the pace of falling consumption, but supply will not decline quickly due to the long production cycle and government support for producers in many countries.
On the supply side, there are signs of increased production. According to Unica, sugar production in the central-southern region of Brazil increased slightly in the 2025/26 season, and the share of cane destined for sugar production increased.
In India, according to ISMA, sugar production has also increased, and the authorities have allowed additional exports, which is increasing pressure on world prices.
In Ukraine, the domestic market is also feeling the impact of global trends: prices have decreased to approximately 18–19 thousand hryvnias per ton compared to 23–24 thousand hryvnias per ton a year ago, which may affect farmers' decisions regarding sowing the new crop.
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