Main points
- The USDA has raised its soybean production forecast for 2025/26 to a record 428.18 million tons, including Brazil's up 180 million tons.
- After the report was published, soybean futures in Chicago rose 1% to $412.5 per ton, amid expectations of increased exports to China.
Soybean production will increase / Photo Unsplash
Experts have raised their forecast for global oilseed and soybean production for the 2025/26 season amid better crop expectations in South America. After the report was published, soybean and canola futures rose, while prices on the sunflower market in Ukraine reached seasonal highs.
Soybean production should increase significantly
In the February World Oilseeds Balance for the 2025/26 marketing year, FAS USDA analysts again raised the forecast for global production – by 2.63 million tons to 695.78 million tons, compared to 684.9 million tons in the 2024/25 marketing year and 657.4 million tons in the 2023/24 marketing year, GrainTrade reports. At the same time, the estimate of ending stocks was increased by 1.23 million tons to 146.3 million tons due to increased production.
The forecast for global soybean production in the 2025/26 marketing year has been raised by 2.5 million tons to a record 428.18 million tons. In particular, the estimate for Brazil has been increased to 180 million tons, for Paraguay to 11.5 million tons, while the forecast for Argentina has remained at 48.5 million tons.
Take now – return after harvest. Open Agri Club provides financing for a seed company for small agricultural enterprises with a land bank of up to 1,500 hectares. Participants receive not only money, but also comprehensive support: soil analysis, fertilizers, expert advice. Join Open Agri Club!
Global soybean consumption is expected to be 424.74 million tonnes, 1.6 million tonnes higher than previously estimated, primarily due to increased processing in Brazil and Paraguay. The forecast for ending soybean stocks has also been raised to 125.5 million tonnes, mainly due to larger stocks in Brazil.
After the report, March soybean futures in Chicago rose 1 percent to $412.50 per ton, up 8.7 percent from a month ago, on expectations of stronger U.S. exports to China. Meanwhile, the U.S. exported 23.136 million tons of soybeans from Sept. 1 to Feb. 5, down 34.4 percent from a year ago, leaving about 20 million tons to be shipped by the end of the season amid stiff competition from Brazil.
What are the production forecasts for the remaining oilseeds?
The forecast for world sunflower production was left at 52.06 million tons, although the market expected an increase in the estimate for Argentina against the background of a high yield. In Ukraine, due to delays in the supply of raw materials to processing plants and the increase in world prices for oil, sunflower prices increased to 29,500 – 30,500 hryvnias per ton with delivery to the plant at 50% oil content, which is 9 – 10% more than a month ago.
The forecast for rapeseed production in the 2025/26 marketing year was left unchanged at 95.17 million tonnes. At the same time, the forecast for rapeseed imports to the European Union was lowered and that for China was raised, and estimates for canola exports from Australia and Canada were revised.
Following the report, canola futures rose to their highest since November at C$668 per tonne ($494 per tonne), while May rapeseed futures in Paris fell slightly to €487.75 per tonne. At the same time, markets are expecting increased oilseed supply and a seasonal cooling in oil demand due to the Chinese New Year celebrations and a traditional decline in consumption in India.
Food wheat prices are rising at ports: what are the trends in the export market?
-
Prices for food wheat in Ukraine are increasing due to increased procurement and reduced competition in foreign markets.
-
As of February 12, purchase prices at the ports of Greater Odessa and Danube increased by 1-2 US dollars per ton compared to last week.