- 1 What impact do Russian shelling have on Ukrainian agricultural exports?
- 2 How much grain was exported and harvested in 2025?
- 3 Why are attacks on port infrastructure not the only reason for the decline in exports?
- 4 Which ports have the Russians attacked in the last few weeks?
- 5 How do strikes on Ukrainian ports affect traders' contracts?
- 6 Are there alternative ways?
- 1 What impact do Russian shelling have on Ukrainian agricultural exports?
- 2 How much grain was exported and harvested in 2025?
- 3 Why are attacks on port infrastructure not the only reason for the decline in exports?
- 4 Which ports have the Russians attacked in the last few weeks?
- 5 How do strikes on Ukrainian ports affect traders' contracts?
- 6 Are there alternative ways?
Enemy attacks on Ukraine's port infrastructure pose risks to grain exports. Damage to elevators, equipment, and vessels could slow crop transportation, increase logistics costs, and impact supply volumes to international markets.
Ukraine is already lagging behind by more than 30% in total agricultural exports compared to the previous marketing year.
24 Channel learned how Ukrainian agricultural exports are suffering due to Russian shelling of ports, what impact this will have on the cost of products, and how to ensure stable exports under these conditions.
What impact do Russian shelling have on Ukrainian agricultural exports?
Deputy Head of the VAR, Denys Marchuk, told Channel 24 that the impact of Russian shelling of Ukrainian port infrastructure is already being observed, and it is quite significant.
The fact is that in 2025, the export delay was due to weather conditions. As a result, the grain harvest was late, and therefore there were not many offers on the market. Thus, the volume of grain exports decreased.
But to all this, the factor of Russian strikes has been added. Compared to last year, Ukraine is lagging behind by more than 30% in total agricultural exports.
Denys Marchuk
Deputy Chairman of the All-Ukrainian Agrarian Council
Any strikes carried out by the enemy lead to the destruction of contracts. And untimely execution of contracts means additional fines and penalties.
As a result, insurance risks and logistics become more expensive. And all this is subsequently taken into account in the price, which decreases for the producer. And today, many people are selling grain much cheaper than expected, says Mr. Denis.
Similar assessments are voiced by economist Oleg Pendzin, who explains to Channel 24 that the problem with shelling of port infrastructure undoubtedly reduces export opportunities.
Olen Pendzin
Executive Director of the Economic Discussion Club
The export of Ukrainian grain is influenced by many factors, including the state of port infrastructure, because immediately after any arrival, the insurance company sharply raises insurance premiums. This, accordingly, affects the overall income from Ukrainian exports.
In addition, total Ukrainian grain exports also depend on the volume of the harvest. In 2025, it was smaller than in 2024, in particular due to weather conditions.
And we are talking only about the grain group, because in 2025, on the contrary, more vegetables were harvested.
How much grain was exported and harvested in 2025?
As Svitlana Lytvyn, head of the analytical department of the Ukrainian Agricultural and Food Agency, told Channel 24, in 2025, 39.8 million tons of grains, oilseeds, and their processed products were exported through the ports of the Odessa region.
Svitlana Lytvyn
Head of the Analytical Department of the Ukrainian Anti-Corruption Agency
Seaports remain the main export channel, accounting for 87% of exports in this category, followed by rail at 7%, Danube river ports at 3%, road transport at 2%, and others.
Ms. Svitlana explains that the shelling of Odessa and the lack of electricity negatively affected food exports in December.
Thus, according to the results of December 2025, 3.6 million tons of grain, oilseeds and their processing products were exported through the ports of the Odessa region, which is 8% less than the same indicator last month.
Instead, it is known that the total harvest in 2025 ended at 57.6 million tons of grain and 17.3 million tons of oilseeds, according to the government portal.
It is expected that after the corn harvest is complete, the total grain volume could be at 60 million tons.
- Currently, such indicators indicate that Ukraine ranks 2nd among the countries of the European Union in terms of grain production.
- France ranks first with 63.1 million tons, while Germany and Poland, which are also in the ranking, collected 45.2 million tons and 36.5 million tons, respectively.
- However, in terms of grain yield, Ukraine ranks 18th among the 27 European Union countries. Ukrainian yields are 15% higher than in Spain and 11% higher than in Romania.
Instead, as of November 2024, according to data from the Ministry of Agrarian Policy, the Institute for Strategic Studies reports, farmers harvested a total of 73.6 million tons of agricultural products.
Why are attacks on port infrastructure not the only reason for the decline in exports?
In addition to port infrastructure, agricultural holdings are also suffering , says Oleg Pendzin:
- For example, on the night of December 24-25, 2025, the Russians struck an oil and fat plant in the city of Chornomorsk, Odessa region. This was reported by the Kernel company.
- And on January 5, the enemy attacked an oil refinery in Dnipro, owned by the American agro-industrial company Bunge. The shelling spilled 300 tons of vegetable oil onto the city's roads, according to the city's mayor, Borys Filatov.
- Bunge is a manufacturer of bottled sunflower oil under the Oleina brand.
However, Pendzin notes that not all export proceeds from the sale of Ukrainian grain abroad return to Ukraine.
The thing is that no Ukrainian company is currently among the leaders in grain exports. That is, all the main traders are foreign companies.
Therefore, all statements that the arrival of an American investor in Ukraine will automatically mean guarantees of security from Russian shelling are not confirmed,
– says Mr. Oleg.
The five largest companies that are traders of Ukrainian grain include:
- Kernel, the largest exporter of Ukrainian grain, increased its export share to 12% in 2025, and the volume of shipments amounted to 5.4 million tons, writes Latifundist.
- The ranking also includes the French international trading company Louis Dreyfus Company (LDC), American agribusinesses Archer Daniels Midland (ADM) and Cargill, and the top five is rounded out by the Ukrainian agroholding “NIBULON”, the publication notes, citing data from the Ministry of Economy, Ecology and Agriculture.
Interestingly, starting in 2022, the largest source of foreign exchange inflows into Ukraine will not be exports, explains Oleg Pendzin, but macro-financial assistance. According to him, this situation will continue this year and, most likely, next year.
What ports have the Russians attacked in the last few weeks?
Between December 26, 2025 and January 1, 2026, the Russians attacked the Odessa region at least three times:
- As of December 26, 2025, as reported by the head of the Odessa Oblast Armed Forces, the Russians had struck not only the industrial infrastructure in the region, but also the port infrastructure.
The shelling on the territory of the grain elevator damaged equipment for transporting grain. In addition, ships flying the flags of Slovakia and the Republic of Palau were hit.
- A few days later, on December 30, 2025, Russia attacked the Odessa region with drone strikes. Facilities in the ports of Pivdenny and Chornomorsk were damaged.
The strikes on the industrial enterprise damaged empty oil storage tanks, the Odesa Regional Military Administration reports. A civilian grain ship under the Panamanian flag was also damaged.
- Later, on the night of January 1, the Russians again attacked the port infrastructure of the Odessa region. The ports of Odessa and Izmail were under their sights.
According to the Minister of Community and Territorial Development Oleksiy Kuleba, there is damage to port equipment and machinery in the Izmail port. In the Odessa port, however, fragments of enemy drones and a blast wave also damaged port equipment, vehicles, and individual infrastructure facilities.
How do strikes on Ukrainian ports affect traders' contracts?
Denys Marchuk notes that the impact of Russia's attacks is also felt in general markets. Counterparties who buy Ukrainian products also have their own contracts for execution in different parts of the world.
In particular, in Asia and Africa, where Ukraine exports the most. Therefore, shelling may lead to deals being re-contracted to other countries,
– says Marchuk.
However, Mr. Denys adds that despite the shelling, even with higher freight rates and insurance conditions, Ukrainian exports are not standing still.
Now Ukraine has the opportunity and the task to achieve export indicators of its products that will be no worse than last year. Considering that the indicators for the grain group this season are slightly better than they were last year.
What is freight: It is the fee for renting a vessel or space on it. When freight rates rise, it becomes more expensive to transport grain. These additional costs are passed on to businesses.
Are there alternative ways?
Svitlana Lytvyn explains that the availability of sea exports greatly enhances the competitiveness of Ukrainian products. In addition, it is the cheapest logistics option, especially when significant volumes need to be exported.
And it's the only option to reach regions where there is a demand for food, such as Africa or Southeast Asia. However, maritime export logistics must operate without the delays and threats we currently face due to constant attacks,
– adds Lytvyn.
Marchuk notes that alternative export routes always work, as the system has long been diversified. In general, today there are 4 main directions of movement, of which the largest share is occupied by the large ports of Odessa.
However, the enemy's attacks are not only on the port infrastructure of Odessa, but also on the ports of the Danube. The bridge infrastructure is also suffering, in particular the connection between Bessarabia and the mainland of the country.
They lead to a partial loss of logistics of bypass routes. And this is then included in the cost, that is, it increases the volume,
– says Marchuk.
We remind you! Russia struck a bridge in the settlement of Mayaki, Odessa region on December 19, 2025. 10 strikes were carried out on the facility in a day. The fact is that this is an important transport link Odesa-Reni, through which the main flow of transport passes, connecting the south of Odessa region with the regional center, port infrastructure, the border with Moldova and Romania, etc.
In addition, as Marchuk explains, Ukraine started the new marketing year in July 2025. Therefore, conditionally, from July 2025 to July 2026, approximately 50 million tons of agricultural products need to be exported. And for such exports, a certain amount needs to be shipped every month.
However, only the sea can provide such a volume. Even under the best operating conditions of the Danube port infrastructure, the figure reached only 3 million tons. And transportation by cars and railways is not able to cover the rest,
– notes the deputy head of the VAR.
Therefore, in any case, the focus in Ukraine should be on protecting the port infrastructure, because the problem of shelling Odessa and the region is not a regional problem, but a national one. This does not allow for exports, and therefore, to receive foreign exchange earnings on time.
In addition, this is also a global problem, because Ukrainian products are not delivered to markets on time, which leads to certain delays and price increases.