Why orange juice prices may rise / Shutterstock / Collage of Channel 24
The price of orange juice continues to rise in Ukraine due to the prospect of a lower harvest of this type of citrus fruit in the largest producing countries. We will tell you why the supply of raw materials is decreasing and how prices are changing for Ukrainians.
What are the reasons for the global increase in the price of oranges in the world?
Currently, several factors are causing the price of oranges and their processed product – juice – to rise on the world market. These include the spread of tree diseases and adverse weather conditions. Bohdan Dukhnytsky, a researcher at the Institute of Agrarian Economics, told Channel 24 about this in a commentary.
The expert notes that in 2026, due to the spread of diseases and adverse weather , a 13-14% lower orange harvest is expected in Brazil. Since this country is the largest producer of this type of citrus fruit, the reduction in supply will significantly affect the global market.
Note! According to the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, in 2024, Brazil accounted for 23% of global orange production – about 16 million tons.
According to Bohdan Dukhnytsky, a similar negative situation has developed in Florida, which is the center of orange cultivation in the United States of America. Production there has decreased significantly: from 11.8 million tons in 2000 to 2.5 million tons in 2024. However, the country remained among the main global producers.
For Florida, the following factors also had an additional negative impact:
- reduction in the area of orange plantations;
- increase in production costs;
- reducing the profitability of local farmers.
Bohdan Dukhnytskyi,
Doctor of Economics, Leading Researcher of the Department of Agrarian Market and International Integration of the Institute of Agrarian Economics
Given the above facts, we can speak of a systemic nature of the problems with orange production. Therefore, the supply of raw materials for the production of orange juice, according to preliminary estimates, will decrease. This means a high risk of product price increases in the near future.
Expectations of a lower harvest have already caused a jump in stock prices for orange juice, as Brazil also accounts for a significant share of sales of this product among other exporting countries on the world market.
The domestic market of Ukraine is completely dependent on imported supplies, so the cost of oranges and juice for end consumers will be affected by the global price situation.
How have the prices of oranges and juice changed in Ukraine?
Expert Bohdan Dukhnytskyi says that the situation with prices for oranges in Ukraine is currently relatively stable. In May 2025, a kilogram of these citrus fruits in supermarkets cost an average of 75 hryvnias, while in May this year it was 72 hryvnias.
In general, orange prices in 2025-2026 were mostly in the range of 65-75 hryvnia per kilogram. The most noticeable increase was in the fall of 2025, when in September they even exceeded 100 hryvnia per kilogram, although such seasonality has been recorded regularly recently. In addition, the price of imported oranges and orange juice differed,
– the expert notes.
From currently available data for part of 2025, the scientist concludes that fluctuations in the prices of oranges on store shelves were insignificant compared to 2024. In contrast, orange juice, depending on the specific type, increased in price by 28–62% over the past year.
The average producer price for orange juice also increased:
- in March 2025 it was 58,950 hryvnias per ton;
- in March 2026 – reached 65,243 hryvnias per ton (+11%) .
As a result, the price of juice in supermarkets – from the cheapest to the premium segment – has risen significantly. This trend continues to this day.
Although without data on the results of the harvest in Brazil, it is difficult to predict the prospects for changes in orange juice prices, scientist Bohdan Dukhnytskyi assumes that there will be no significant changes in Ukraine's imports of citrus fruits. According to him, this is confirmed by operational foreign trade data in 2026.
How have the prices of orange juice increased?
In early May, orange juice prices on the New York Stock Exchange jumped 5.8%, the biggest intraday jump in more than a week.
The value of the contracts rose to the maximum level allowed by the exchange – $1.8320 per pound.