Main points
- Brazil's orange harvest is expected to decline by 13% in the 2026-2027 season, which has contributed to the rise in orange juice futures prices.
- Disease and heat are reducing orange yields in Brazil, which could lead to further reductions in global orange juice supplies.
Oranges are getting more expensive / Photo Unsplash
Orange juice futures in New York rose sharply on expectations of a weaker orange harvest in Brazil, raising concerns about further supply cuts from the world's largest exporter.
Orange harvest in Brazil could be significantly reduced
Orange juice prices on the New York Mercantile Exchange jumped 5.8%, their biggest intraday jump in more than a week, Bloomberg reported. The contract price rose to the exchange's maximum level of $1.8320 per pound.
The price increase was driven by new forecasts for Brazil's orange harvest. According to research group Fundecitrus, the country will harvest about 255.2 million boxes of oranges in the 2026-2027 season, which is 13% less than the previous year.
The upcoming harvest is also expected to be about 15% lower than the average of the last decade.
Disease and heat hit the plantations
The main orange-growing regions in Brazil continue to suffer from the spread of citrus greening disease, which significantly reduces tree yields. An additional negative factor was the high temperatures last year, which impaired the flowering process of the plants.
The average productivity of plantations is forecast at 697 boxes per hectare, which is 14% less than last year. The decrease in yield was recorded for all varieties of oranges grown in the country.
Fundecitrus also warns that the situation could be worsened by the spread of other diseases, the possible arrival of El Niño in the second half of 2026, and later harvest dates.
The global orange juice market has been facing supply constraints for several years due to problems in Brazil and the US state of Florida. At the same time, weakening global demand and changing consumer habits have partly restrained further price increases after record highs in 2024.
How much do oranges cost in Ukraine?
As of May 2026, according to the Ministry of Finance, the average price of weighted oranges in Ukrainian supermarkets is approximately 50-60 hryvnia per kilogram. Prices can vary from 49.90 hryvnia at ATB to 80-90 hryvnia for premium varieties or pre-packaged options in other stores.
- ATB 49.90 hryvnia per kilogram;
- VARUS 59.90 hryvnias per kilogram;
- NOVUS from 62.29 hryvnias per kilogram;
- Auchan 82.60 hryvnias per kilogram;
- Silpo 69.90 hryvnias per kilogram.
Apple producers are working at random: the market does not know the real stocks
Ukrainian apple producers face a slightly different problem than Brazilian orange producers.
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The Ukrainian apple market faces uncertainty due to the lack of accurate information on stocks, which makes price forecasting difficult.
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Prices for apples in supermarkets range from 38.90 to 42 hryvnias per kilogram, depending on the chain.
Experts believe that the lack of accurate statistics on apple stocks only increases instability in the market and complicates the work of both producers and exporters.