Main points
- World trade in wheat flour in the 2025-2026 marketing year will fall to 16 million tons, the lowest level in four years.
- The main factors behind the decline in imports are reduced purchases by Iraq and Sudan, while Syria is increasing imports to record levels due to a weak harvest.
Flour trade will collapse / Photo Unsplash
Global flour trade in the 2025-2026 marketing year will fall to its lowest level in four years, driven primarily by reduced imports by key countries.
IGC predicts reduction in flour trade on world markets
Global wheat flour trade in the 2025-2026 marketing year will continue to decline and reach a four-year low, World-Grain.com reports. This forecast was published by the International Grains Council in its March report.
Analysts estimate that trade volume will be around 16 million tonnes in wheat terms, down 3% from last year. This is the second consecutive year that the market has shown a decline.
The main factor in the decline will be reduced imports from Iraq and Sudan. In Sudan, the resumption of mill operations led to a switch to wheat imports instead of flour, which significantly reduced demand for finished products.
Iraq is also reducing purchases by about 500,000 tons, to a level of about 700,000 tons, which could be the lowest figure in almost two decades.
Where is the fall felt the most?
Other countries, including Ethiopia, Uzbekistan, and Yemen, are also seeing a decline in imports, while some countries, such as Afghanistan and Syria, are increasing their purchases.
In particular, Syria, due to a poor harvest and processing problems, may import a record amount of flour – up to 1 million tons, becoming one of the largest buyers in the world.
Among exporters, a reduction in supplies from Egypt is expected, while Turkey will slightly increase exports, although they will remain below the average of recent years.
Please note! Analysts predict that in the 2026-2027 marketing year, trade may partially recover – up to 16.2 million tons. At the same time, further dynamics will depend on demand, state policies and the security situation in key regions.
Ukrainian flour exports fell to a 20-year low: what influenced this?
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In 2025, Ukraine exported 66.8 thousand tons of flour, which is the lowest figure since 2006.
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The main reasons for the decline in exports were the loss of traditional markets and logistical difficulties due to the war, although Moldova and some EU countries remain stable sales destinations.