Main points
- Weather risks in Vietnam and Indonesia have led to rising coffee prices, particularly for robusta.
- The reduction in coffee stocks on exchanges is causing nervousness in the market and maintaining high price volatility.
Robusta coffee is getting more expensive / Photo Shutterstock
Global coffee prices have risen again amid concerns about the crop. The market is reacting to weather risks in key producing countries and declining inventories.
Weather risks push up prices
Robusta coffee futures in London hit their highest level in nearly two weeks, Bloomberg reported, led by concerns about drought in Vietnam, one of the largest producers of the crop.
According to Rabobank analysts, the expected El Niño phenomenon could lead to dry weather not only in Vietnam but also in some regions of Indonesia, creating additional risks for the future harvest.
Against this background, robusta quotes increased by approximately 1.5% and have been showing positive dynamics for the third session in a row.
Inventories are decreasing, the market is nervous
Despite the overall global robusta surplus, the stock situation is a concern for traders. Exchange reserves are currently at their lowest level since late 2024, supporting prices in the short term.
A similar situation is observed in the Arabica market. The key spread between May and June contracts has been increasing for several days in a row as traders prepare for the delivery period.
At the same time, even despite positive harvest forecasts in Brazil, the level of stockpiles remains historically low, which continues to influence the market and maintains high price volatility.
What are the prices on world exchanges?
After hitting their lowest levels in months, international coffee prices have recovered rapidly, Vietnam.vn reports. Robusta in particular has shown impressive growth, reaching its highest level in the past week.
- London Stock Exchange (Robusta): The May 2026 contract rose sharply by 3.19% (equivalent to $107) to reach $3,458 per tonne. The July 2026 contract also rose by 2.98% to reach $3,351 per tonne.
- New York Mercantile Exchange (Arabica): The gains were somewhat more modest. The May 2026 contract rose 0.6% to 302.65 US cents per pound. The July 2026 contract reached 297.6 US cents per pound, a slight increase of 0.46%.
Cocoa prices have dropped sharply: will chocolate become more affordable?
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Cocoa prices have fallen by more than 70% after a record high in 2024 due to lower demand and improved harvests.
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Despite the decline in the price of raw materials, manufacturers are using expensive stocks or new recipes with reduced cocoa content, and demand for chocolate remains weak.