Main points
- Diesel fuel prices in Ukraine have increased by 45%, which affects the cost of agricultural work.
- Rising fuel and fertilizer costs could increase farmers' total costs of growing the 2026 crop by 15% compared to 2025.
What is the impact of the increase in fuel prices on the new agricultural season / Pixabay / Collage of Channel 24
Average diesel prices in Ukraine have increased by 45% in just over a month of war in the Middle East. We will discuss how the price increase will affect farmers, who mostly use diesel for field work, below.
How much will the cost of sowing become more expensive for Ukrainian farmers?
The increase in fuel and fertilizer prices due to geopolitical factors will affect Ukrainian farmers, so spring work will be more expensive for them. The cost of tillage and sowing will increase by approximately 3 thousand hryvnias per hectare. This was stated by scientist Oleksandr Zakharchuk in a commentary for Channel 24 .
More than a month has passed since the start of the Iran war, and the escalation has affected economies far beyond the Middle East. Among the global consequences is a surge in oil and fuel prices, which is hitting economies not directly involved in the conflict.
Ukraine has also been affected, forced to import fuel due to the loss of its own oil refining infrastructure due to Russian strikes. One of the largest consumers of fuel in the Ukrainian economy is agriculture, which uses over 25% of diesel fuel and 5% of gasoline . Most of the diesel fuel – 85% – is used for field work, and up to 15% for transportation.
Important! According to the data of the A-95 Consulting Group, which is cited by the Ministry of Finance, average retail prices for diesel fuel at Ukrainian gas stations changed as follows: on February 27, diesel fuel cost an average of 61.60 hryvnias per liter , and on April 6, the average price of diesel fuel reached 89.70 hryvnias per liter (+28.1 hryvnias or 45.6%).
Oleksandr Zakharchuk, a researcher at the Institute of Agrarian Economics, predicts an increase in the price of spring sowing in Ukraine, due to the increase in the cost of fuel and mineral fertilizers.
Oleksandr Zakharchuk
Corresponding Member of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, Head of the Department of Investment and Logistics of the Institute of Agrarian Economics
The 2026 sowing campaign will take place in conditions of increased economic pressure on farmers. The cost of carrying out a complex of spring field works will increase by an average of 10-12% compared to 2025. If last year the entire complex of works cost about 220 billion hryvnias, then in 2026 it may cost 240-250 billion hryvnias.
According to expert calculations as of the last decade of March, farmers' expenses over the year may increase as follows:
- +10% for seeds – up to 50 billion hryvnias;
- +15 – 20% on fuel – up to 30 billion hryvnias;
- +15% for mineral fertilizers – up to 60-65 billion hryvnias;
- +7 – 8% for plant protection products – up to 25 billion hryvnias.
- other expenses – 80 billion hryvnias – at the level of the last sowing season .
According to Oleksandr Zakharchuk, due to the increase in the price of diesel fuel, farmers will have to spend up to 1 thousand hryvnias per hectare, and inflationary processes will add another 10-12% to the selling price of fuel.
At the same time, the expert says that a significant increase in the cost of materials and equipment for the 2026 harvest should not be expected. The reason is that a significant part of the resources were purchased in advance – in the fall and winter of 2025, and winter crops were sown last year.
The 2026 crop will cost farmers approximately 15% more than the 2025 crop. Total costs could reach about 650–680 billion hryvnias,
– concludes Oleksandr Zakharchuk.
As Yevhen Barkov, an expert at the Ukrainian Agrarian Business Club, noted in a commentary for Channel 24 , fuel is one of the basic costs of growing agricultural crops. In the overall cost structure, its share is 9-12%. Therefore, the rapid growth in fuel prices has a significant impact on the cost of production.
The rise in the price of fertilizers is also an important factor. Due to Russian attacks on infrastructure and power outages in Ukraine, the production of ammonium nitrate has almost halved, says Yevgeny Barkov. Together with logistics problems, this has led to a shortage of this type of fertilizer for spring sowing of up to 190 thousand tons as of early March 2026.
For reference: foreign production of ammonium nitrate decreased from 1.99 million tons in 2024-2025 to 1.016 million tons in the 2025-2026 season.
In general, compared to 2025, farmers' spending on fertilizers increased by an average of 27-29%, depending on the crop.
Yevgeny Barkov
Coordinator of the Committee of Fertilizer Market Operators of the Ukrainian Agricultural Agricultural Cooperative Association (UKAB)
The rapid increase in fuel prices over the past month by more than 22% also has a relative impact on the increase in the cost of agricultural production and a significant impact on logistics. The combination of these factors leads to an increase in the price of the spring sowing campaign by up to 10%.
According to the results of 2025, the agricultural sector's need for mineral fertilizers was about 5.2 million tons , of which about 3.3 million tons were imported. According to the expert, if the trend towards increasing prices and reducing sown areas continues, farmers will be forced to abandon the application of certain types of fertilizers.
- The projected reduction in imports could be up to 25%.
- In turn, this will lead to a decrease in state budget revenues from VAT payments of up to 75 million US dollars.
What could the increase in fuel prices mean for Ukraine's economy?
Small and medium-sized agricultural producers are most vulnerable to the consequences of a jump in fuel prices. Expert Oleksandr Zakharchuk notes that some large agricultural holdings can receive individual conditions from suppliers through direct contracts . However, for most small and medium-sized producers, prices will be formed on the market.
In Ukraine, the agricultural sector generates a significant portion of foreign exchange earnings and is one of the largest taxpayers, so any problems in the industry are reflected in budget revenues. According to the assessment of UCAB expert Yevgeny Barkov, in the event of a 20% drop in gross harvest, domestic VAT revenues could decrease by 15-18 billion hryvnias .
Although some agricultural products are exported, the reduction in domestic transactions, such as the purchase of fuel, fertilizers, and elevator services, automatically reduces the tax base. Foreign exchange earnings could decrease by $4-5 billion in export revenue,
– says the UCAB expert.
The fall in the harvest will result in an increase in the cost of production per unit, which may lead to a drop in the net profit of agricultural producers and processing enterprises by 30-40% . Among the consequences is a reduction in the number of employees, which will lead to:
- reduction of social security contributions and military service contributions;
- reduced ability to pay the minimum tax liability;
- review of the terms of rent payment.
According to Yevhen Barkov, direct and indirect budget losses from a 20% drop in harvest could amount to 35 to 45 billion hryvnias during the marketing year.
How does the government assess the impact of rising fuel prices on the agricultural sector?
- According to the Ministry of Economy's estimates as of the end of March, the actual additional costs of sowing in Ukraine will increase by approximately 5%, despite a 30-40% increase in diesel fuel prices.
- As Economy Minister Oleksiy Sobolev noted, the government is analyzing the market situation to assess the impact of price fluctuations. On average, additional costs for farmers were estimated at about $40 per hectare.