Main points
- Ukrainian corn is losing competitiveness in foreign markets due to its high price, supported by the technical recovery of the global market.
- Rising prices have caused a reduction in supply and the accumulation of over 500,000 tons of corn in railway cars on the approaches to ports.
Corn sales are falling / Photo Unsplash
After the January slump, the global corn market has entered a phase of technical recovery, which has supported prices in Ukraine. At the same time, the high cost of grain is already reducing the competitiveness of Ukrainian corn on foreign markets.
Corn is losing its competitiveness
The global corn market is gradually recovering after a decline in January, which has affected the strengthening of prices in the domestic market of Ukraine, analysts at Spike Brokers reported.
According to them, the price increase has led to a further reduction in supply. Farmers, who were already slow to sell, have become even more active in holding back grain sales.
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At the same time, Ukrainian corn is gradually losing its appeal to foreign buyers due to its high price level. Additional pressure on demand is created by the accumulation of over 500,000 tons of corn in railway cars at the approaches to ports, which forms a stockpile of goods for approximately 5-10 days.
Price dynamics indicate a tight balance between supply and demand. According to the SPIKE index, the price of corn CPT Odesa increased from $209 per ton at the end of January to $213 per ton.
Pay attention! Analysts also note that the market remains port-oriented. The western direction on FCA terms works on a spot basis – for individual programs of 100-150 thousand tons per month, while demand at the border is mostly already closed, and the Italian market is moving to contracts for late spring and summer.
Frosts are hampering corn sales: prices in Ukrainian ports have increased
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Frosts in Ukraine are holding back corn sales, pushing prices in Black Sea ports to $207-$211 per ton.
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Globally, March corn futures in Chicago remain at $168 per ton, while in South America, varying weather conditions are affecting harvest forecasts.