Main points
- The war against Iran caused oil prices to rise by 15% and gas prices to rise by 30%, but demand for corn fell due to reduced imports from the Middle East.
- Ukraine exported 11.54 million tons of corn in the 2025/26 marketing year, which is 29% less than last year, and world prices remain stable against the backdrop of reduced demand and favorable planting weather in Brazil and the United States.
The war in Iran is affecting corn / Photo Pixabay
The escalation of the war against Iran has already caused a sharp increase in oil and gas prices, and may also push up the cost of fertilizers. At the same time, the grain market is reacting differently – due to reduced demand from the Middle East, prices remain under pressure.
The war in Iran has put pressure on the corn market
Military action against Iran has already led to an increase in global oil prices by about 15% and gas prices by 30%, GrainTrade reports. The next step is expected to be a rise in fertilizer prices.
However, grain and oilseed crops, which usually increase in price following energy resources, are demonstrating restrained dynamics this time due to a decrease in physical demand from traditional importers of Ukrainian grain in the Middle East.
In February, Ukraine exported 2.48 million tons of corn. The largest volumes were delivered to Turkey – 802 thousand tons (32%), Spain – 477 thousand tons, Italy – 343 thousand tons and the Netherlands – 256 thousand tons. In total, 11.54 million tons of corn were exported in the 2025/26 marketing year, which is 29% less than last year (14.92 million tons). About 11 million tons more need to be shipped before the end of the season.
Turkey re-exported part of the purchased Ukrainian corn to Iran, so a reduction in demand in this direction could significantly affect the Ukrainian market.
During the week, export demand prices for corn in Ukraine increased by $1 per ton to $211–213 per ton (10,350–10,400 hryvnia per ton) with delivery to Black Sea ports. Farmers are holding back sales, expecting further price increases against the backdrop of rising oil and fertilizer prices.
What is happening with corn on world markets?
Meanwhile, global quotes remain relatively stable. South Korean processors purchased 133,000 tons of feed corn for delivery until the end of July 2026 at a price of $250-251.05 per ton on a cost-plus-freight basis, only slightly above the level of May contracts.
In Brazil, rains in the central regions are delaying the harvest and planting campaign. According to AgRural, as of February 27, the first crop of corn has been harvested from 36% of the area (last year – 46%), and the second crop has been sown on 66% of the planned area (80% last year). Some plantings may be delayed.
March corn futures on the Chicago Board of Trade have fallen 1.1% since the beginning of the week to $171 per ton amid expectations of reduced demand.
Corn exports from the US for the period from February 19 to 27 decreased by 8% to 1.86 million tons, although overall since the beginning of the marketing year (September 1), deliveries reached 39.6 million tons, which is 42.3% more than last year.
Favorable planting weather in Brazil and the US is reducing the impact of weather risks on the market. At the same time, the acceleration of harvest in Argentina is increasing competition for Ukrainian and US corn against the backdrop of weakening demand.
War in Iran could lead to disruptions in agricultural supplies
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The escalation of the conflict in Iran has caused fluctuations in agricultural markets and an increase in energy prices.
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The conflict is complicating trade relations between the US and China, affecting the soybean, corn, and fertilizer markets.