Main points
- Ukraine is experiencing a shortage of buckwheat due to a significant reduction in production in previous years.
- It is expected that the price of buckwheat groats may increase to 55 – 60 hryvnias per kilogram by August 2026.
What will happen to buckwheat prices in Ukraine / Collage of Channel 24
Buckwheat production is declining in Ukraine, so a deficit has formed as a result of 2025. Will Ukrainians have enough groats for 2026 and what kind of price jump can we expect by the summer? We will tell you further.
What was the situation on the buckwheat market in 2019 – 2025?
In the first years of the full-scale war, the buckwheat market in Ukraine was growing. Sowing areas were expanded against the backdrop of the crop's increasing economic attractiveness. However, in 2024, the situation began to change dramatically. Svitlana Cheremisina, a researcher at the Institute of Agrarian Economics, told this in a commentary for Channel 24 .
According to the expert, during 2019-2023, the level of harvested buckwheat areas in Ukraine increased even despite the beginning of full-scale Russian aggression. Although the grain market was negatively affected by the war, its buckwheat component showed positive results. This was due to:
- favorable price environment;
- cessation of buckwheat import flows from Russia.
Svetlana Cheremisina
Doctor of Economics, Chief Researcher of the Department of Agrarian Market and International Integration of the Institute of Agrarian Economics
As a result, in 2022 , for the first time in the last decade, buckwheat production in Ukraine exceeded our domestic consumption by 1.5 times. This allowed us to form a domestic supply of cereals, prevent its shortage and stabilize the price growth trend. The further decrease and preservation of favorable prices for buckwheat was influenced by the record harvest of 2023, the volumes of which exceeded domestic market needs by two times.
According to the scientist, in 2019-2023, the sown area of buckwheat in Ukraine increased more than twice : from 69.2 thousand hectares in 2019 to 147.9 thousand hectares in 2023.
The gross harvest of buckwheat also showed similar dynamics. Thanks to the simultaneous expansion of areas and increased yields , production volume increased almost 2.5 times :
- from 85 thousand tons in 2019;
- up to 210.7 thousand tons in 2023.
However, in the following years, the situation began to deteriorate. In particular, there was a sharp reduction in the area and gross harvest of buckwheat, which indicates a significant decrease in production activity in this segment of the Ukrainian grain market.
Is Ukraine threatened with a shortage of buckwheat?
The situation on the buckwheat market has changed significantly since 2024. In particular, there has been a reduction in the area under the crop:
- in 2024 – up to 90.3 thousand hectares;
- in 2025 – up to 58.5 thousand hectares.
Note! If we compare the harvested areas in 2025 with previous years, they were 84.5% of the 2019 level, 63.7% of 2021, and 64.8% of 2024. Similarly, production volumes decreased: in 2024, the gross harvest of buckwheat was 113.7 thousand tons, and in 2025, it was 70.8 thousand tons.
Such figures indicate a narrowing of the raw material base for buckwheat production, concludes scientist Svetlana Cheremisina.
Given the traditional level of domestic consumption of buckwheat of 100-110 thousand tons per year, according to the 2025 harvest of 70.8 thousand tons, there is a deficit of 30-35 thousand tons. However, it should be remembered that the presence of transitional cereal residues will allow to correct this shortage,
– the expert concludes.
Interesting! Buckwheat imports to Ukraine have been decreasing since 2021. According to preliminary data, in 2025 it was at a minimum level.
What prices for buckwheat can we expect in the near future?
At the end of 2025, the price of buckwheat increased by 25%. During January-September, it remained relatively stable and was at the level of 35.17 – 35.99 hryvnia per kilogram. However, in October-December, there was a rapid increase, so at the end of the year the price jumped to 44.88 hryvnia per kilogram . The upward trend continues in 2026:
- in January, the price of cereals reached 47.45 hryvnia per kilogram;
- in February – increased to 50.82 hryvnias per kilogram.
According to estimates by scientists at the Institute of Agrarian Economics, by August 2026, we can expect a further increase in the price of buckwheat within 10-25% of the current level.
“By the beginning of the new harvest, the consumer price for buckwheat groats may reach approximately 55-60 hryvnias, provided that current market trends are maintained and there is no sharp increase in supply,” says Svitlana Cheremisina.
The price increase will be driven by the gradual reduction in stocks of products from the previous marketing year. They may also be stimulated by psychological expectations of market participants and inflationary processes.
What else is known about the situation with buckwheat in Ukraine?
- As previously reported by Serhiy Gromovy, Executive Director of the International Buckwheat Association, the 2025 buckwheat harvest was one of the lowest in the last 25 years .
- Given the shortage of buckwheat in Ukraine in 2026, Gromovy predicts a price increase to 60 or even 80 hryvnias per kilogram, as well as the possibility that this year's harvest may also be insufficient.