Main points
- Former advisor to the Minister of Strategic Industries of Ukraine Yuriy Sak emphasized that Russia is preparing more offensive operations.
- Ukraine hopes to reach the goal of 50,000 Russian casualties per month to turn the situation in its favor.
During the four years of war, Russia suffered enormous losses. And although the enemy army is exhausted, it does not give up on attempts to gain an advantage on the battlefield.
Former advisor to the Minister of Strategic Industries of Ukraine Yuriy Sak told Channel 24 that today Ukraine is in a very difficult stage of a war of attrition. According to the statement of the General Staff, military and political leadership of Ukraine, the balance of power is in favor of Kyiv.
How does Ukraine plan to turn the situation in the war in its favor?
“This does not mean that the situation on the front lines is easy. We are still suffering losses, and this is very difficult for the Armed Forces of Ukraine. But the price in terms of human resources and equipment that the Russians are paying for every square kilometer, 300 of which they have just lost, is much greater,” the expert explained.
Important! The GUR stated that in cooperation with the Defense Forces of Ukraine, they stopped the Russian offensive in the Zaporizhia region, where the defensive operation has been going on for three months. The scouts thwarted the enemy's offensive plans and prevented their advance to the regional center. During the operation, more than 300 invaders were eliminated, killed and wounded. The exchange fund of Ukraine was also replenished with 39 people.
The balance of power, in his opinion, is not in favor of the Russians, because now they are actually recruiting fewer people into the army than they are losing.
A few weeks ago, newly appointed Defense Minister Mikhail Fedorov announced his plan to achieve a target of 50,000 Russian casualties per month, killed or wounded. This strategy appears to be aimed at turning the war of attrition in Ukraine’s favor,
– Yuriy Sak noted.
At the same time, the front line is practically frozen today. The Russians have tried to carry out several local attacks and continue to do so. According to the former adviser to the Minister for Strategic Industries, there is intelligence that Russia is preparing more offensive operations, for example, in the Zaporizhia region in the spring. But today it is a frozen front with a very large area of impact.
What is known about a possible enemy attack?
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The Welt newspaper notes that Russia is preparing an offensive in southern Ukraine. This information is based on open source data, satellite imagery, and reports from military experts and bloggers. The Russians may step up their operations in several areas – in the Pokrovsk, Hulyaipol, and the area west of Zaporizhia.
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However, the Center for Countering Disinformation noted that the Russians were aware of the preparation of offensive actions back in December and January.
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Military observer Denis Popovych believes that the enemy's offensive actions have been going on for two years. However, they are currently stagnating and will probably intensify in the spring. The Russians may become more active either in the area of Orekhov and Hulyaipol, or in the Slavyansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration.
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Veteran of the Russian-Ukrainian war, reserve major Oleksiy Getman emphasized that the occupiers need a large amount of manpower to carry out the offensive, which must be accumulated. However, it is unclear where the enemy will get new forces, because the number of Russians signing contracts for the Russian army has not increased for at least the last six months.