Poll: Businesses in Ukraine expect revenues to fall by half in 2020

As a result of the coronavirus crisis, Ukraine’s businesses are expecting to see their income drop by over 50% on average, according to a new survey.

Conducted by pollster Advanter Group and published by online publication Liga.net on April 6, the survey shows that 28% of Ukrainian companies expect an even worse scenario this year, with their revenues decreasing by over 60%.

Should the quarantine be prolonged until the end of May, 44% of the companies will lose over 60% of their revenues, with some of them even saying that they will be forced to close up shop, the poll shows.

Meanwhile, 38% of businesses can’t even hold out for more than two months under the strict quarantine, which will last across Ukraine until at least April 24.

Advanter Group polled 458 enterprises of all sizes across the country. It found that the revenue expectations differ greatly across industries. According to the survey, the retail and hospitality sectors, as well as the education sector, will suffer the most from the crisis.

The most resilient sectors are food production and food retail industries. Under the quarantine measures, shops and supermarkets are allowed to continue operating, unlike shopping malls, restaurants and cafes, which were shut down across the country.

Some of Ukraine’s small business entrepreneurs who run bars, cafes and restaurants confirmed to the Kyiv Post that they are struggling to keep their business afloat amid the lockdown. One of them, Ievgen Kloptotenko, said he worried about the quarantine being extended.

“It is rather difficult to look further ahead for a longer period,” Kloptotenko said.

Over half a million Ukrainians have already lost their jobs since March 12, when the quarantine was imposed, and 60% of them are suffering financial losses. A recent poll by polling company Info Sapiens published on April 1 indicates that more than half of Ukrainians have been earning less money.

According to Info Sapiens, 16% of Ukrainians have temporarily lost their source of income, 38% are being paid less and 14% lost their jobs outright. With the government asking the public to stay home, only a quarter of Ukrainians continue to work remotely and earn a regular salary, the poll reads.

Meanwhile, according to another poll conducted by the Rating Group on April 1, 35% of Ukrainians continue to work mostly as usual despite the quarantine, 29% work remotely, 32% have resigned, and 4% have lost their jobs.

Additionally, 60% of respondents said that their savings would last less than a month without any income.

On a national level, instead of the previously estimated 3.7% growth of gross domestic product (GDP) this year, the government is now forecasting a 3.9% decline. However, if the quarantine lasts longer than three months, Ukrainian GDP could shrink by as much as 9%, economists said.

Read also: Business Update: April 6 – Most businesses expect 50% reduction in revenue for 2020