Main points
- Frosts in Ukraine are holding back corn sales, pushing prices in Black Sea ports to $207-$211 per ton.
- Globally, March corn futures in Chicago remain at $168 per ton, while in South America, varying weather conditions are affecting harvest forecasts.
Corn prices have risen / Photo Pixabay
Prolonged frosts have complicated autologistics in Ukraine and reduced grain supply from farmers who are postponing sales in anticipation of better conditions. Against this background, corn demand prices in Black Sea ports continued to rise.
Why are corn prices rising?
Due to severe frosts and transportation problems, Ukrainian farmers are holding back corn sales, which supports a further increase in demand prices at ports, GrainTrade reports. Over the past week, export demand prices for corn in Ukraine increased by 2-3 USD per ton – to 207-211 USD per ton or 10,200-10,250 UAH per ton with delivery to Black Sea ports.
The price increase is taking place against the backdrop of low grain supply from farmers. At the same time, about 8 percent of the corn crop in Ukraine has not yet been harvested, so producers are counting on a further increase in prices due to a possible crop shortfall. At the same time, 29 million tons of grain have already been threshed, which exceeds last year's figure of 26.8 million tons.
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In January, Ukraine exported 2.9 million tons of corn, including 625 thousand tons to Turkey, 606 thousand tons to Italy, 280 thousand tons to Spain, 239 thousand tons to Egypt, and 229 thousand tons to Tunisia. In total, only 8.8 million tons were exported during the season, compared to 12.86 million tons last year, with an export forecast for the 2025/26 marketing year of 23 million tons.
What are the prices of corn in the world?
On world markets, March corn futures in Chicago have been holding at $168 per ton for two weeks, down 3.5 percent from a month ago. Prices have not yet reacted to the high pace of exports from the United States and statements about a possible increase in supplies to China and India.
As of January 30, the US had exported 32.6 million tonnes of corn in the 2025/26 marketing year, up 50 percent from last year's pace, while the export forecast for the season was raised to 81 million tonnes.
In South America, the situation remains mixed. In Brazil, first-crop corn has been harvested from 10 percent of the area, while second-crop corn has been sown on 13 percent, according to AgRural, allowing analysts to raise production forecasts. In Argentina, only 46 percent of the corn crop is in good condition due to drought, so crop forecasts there are being lowered, although expected rains may partially improve the situation.
Please note! At the same time, market operators note that the South Korean company Nonghyup Feed Inc. purchased about 134 thousand tons of feed corn at a tender on February 3 at prices of 242.94 – 243.99 USD per ton on C&F terms. Prices were 6 – 7 USD per ton lower than in January, so experts do not advise Ukrainian farmers to count on a significant increase in corn prices in the spring.
Export prices for food wheat in Ukraine have gone up after a long pause
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Export prices for food wheat in Ukraine increased by 1-3 USD per ton due to increased interest from buyers from Egypt and Turkey and weakening competition from Russian wheat.
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Further price growth is being restrained by war risks, high global grain supply, active sales in the EU, a strengthening dollar, and lower world oil prices.