Ukraine’s GDP may reduce by third from pre-war – IMF head

The Ukrainian economy is suffering greatly from the war unleashed by Russia, the decline in its GDP could be a third of what it was before the war, International Monetary Fund (IMF) Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said in a Foreign Policy Live discussion on Tuesday.

The head of the IMF noted that the destruction of the Ukrainian economy breaks her heart and we will probably see a contraction that could be a third of what it was before the war.

She said that on Tuesday she spoke with a family of her relatives who remain in Kharkiv in a multi-storey building: their area was not bombed, but they hear bombs several times almost every day and suffered from a loss of water supply.

Nevertheless, Georgieva said that the spirit of the Ukrainian people is incredible. There are very strong women in her family. And the message she has got from them is that they will win this war, she reported.

She recalled that the IMF immediately responded to Ukraine's request for $1.4 billion in emergency funding, which is necessary to keep the country functioning.

"We are also working very closely with Ukraine on how to apply the best crisis management measures so that the economy does not collapse. And I would say that money is important, but support in how to keep the financial system functioning is equally important," the head of the Fund said.

According to her, the authorities in Ukraine are doing a wonderful job in a war.

Georgieva said also that they pray that the war ends, and then a huge recovery effort will be required. Of course, the IMF will contribute to it.

The IMF, as of March 7, estimated the drop in Ukraine's GDP this year at 10%, but noted that if the war drags on, it will be significantly larger. The Fund, in its justifications, cited data from 2014-2015, when Russia first invaded eastern Ukraine and annexed Crimea, then GDP fell by 6.6% and slightly less than 10%, respectively, but the invasion was not full-scale and so destructive.

The IMF pointed out that data on real GDP contraction during the war (Iraq, Lebanon, Syria, Yemen) show that the annual decline in output could end up being much higher, in the range of 25-35%.

As reported with reference to the State Statistics Service, in 2021, Ukraine's GDP grew by 3.4% after a decline of 3.8% in 2020, and its nominal volume amounted to about $200 billion. Inflation last year increased to 10% from 5% the previous year.

Source: www.en.interfax.com.ua