NBU worsens forecast for Ukraine’s GDP growth in 2021 to 3%, in 2022 to 3.4%

The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) has downgraded its estimate of the growth of the country's gross domestic product (GDP) in 2021 from 3.1% to 3%, in 2022 – to 3.4% from 3.8%, the regulator said in an inflation report for January, posted on the official website.

"The NBU has downgraded its forecast for Ukraine's economic growth in 2022 to 3.4% from 3.8%. The reasons include high energy prices, the fallout from geopolitical tensions, the global shortage of certain products, and the consequences of the COVID-19 crisis," the bank said.

The NBU also noted that despite the gradual fading of the pandemic, the consequences of the coronavirus crisis will remain quite tangible. Relatively high energy prices and a shortage of certain types of raw materials, primarily in the first half of the year, will also limit growth potential.

"Ukraine's economy in 2022 will grow more slowly than previously anticipated. In 2023–2024, GDP growth will accelerate to about 4%

This should be facilitated by the stabilization of the geopolitical situation during 2022, the end of the negative effects of the pandemic, further growth of the global economy and the preservation of fairly favorable terms of trade.

According to the results of January-March 2022, the central bank expects economic growth by 5.5%, in April-June – 6.1%, in July-September – 2.6%, in October-December – 0.6%, the report says.

At the same time, the National Bank improved the forecast of nominal GDP in 2021 to UAH 5.4 trillion from UAH 5.19 trillion, in 2022 to UAH 6.2 trillion from UAH 5.75 trillion, according to the inflation report.

Source: www.en.interfax.com.ua