Ex-minister of economy: Half a million Ukrainians may lose jobs in COVID-19 crisis

About 500,000 Ukrainians might lose their jobs because of the economic crisis caused by the novel coronavirus pandemic, according to ex-Minister of Economy Tymofiy Mylovanov.

“And it’s a conservative estimate,” Mylovanov wrote on Facebook on March 19.

Ukraine has detected 21 coronavirus cases, three of which were fatal. Meanwhile, globally, COVID-19 has infected 237,912 people and killed 9,844.

To prevent the spread of coronavirus in Ukraine, authorities have imposed extensive restrictions, banning the operation of restaurants, beauty and leisure establishments all over the country. These measures forced many employees to take unpaid leave and face indefinite disruptions in their income.

According to the International Labor Organization, 5 to 25 million people might end up unemployed as a result of the pandemic’s impact on the global economy.

The worst-case scenario stands to overshadow the unemployment caused by the 2008 economic crisis, which cost 22 million jobs.

“An initial assessment of the impact of COVID-19 on the global world of work says the effects will be far-reaching, pushing millions of people into unemployment, underemployment and working poverty,” according to the ILO report.

Mylovanov said that in China, the unemployment rate has grown by 1% over the past month. It now stands at 6.2%.

The unemployment rate in Ukraine is currently 8.6%, meaning 1.5 million people are out of work. If Ukraine follows the Chinese pattern and its unemployment grows by 1% that will result in at least 170,000 people losing their jobs.

However, Mylovanov added that China’s figures reflect official statistics, which don’t take into account people employed unofficially, who are paid off the books. The actual numbers must be much higher as this group of employees is “the most vulnerable to layoffs,” he said.

According to Mylovanov, there are about 291 million unofficial employees in China. In Ukraine, there are 3.4 million unofficial employees – 20% of all workers. 

About a quarter of those unofficially employed – some 700,000 people – work in spheres that have been hit hardest by the current shutdown: trade, repairs, food, hotels and transport. Mylovanov believes that between a quarter and half of these workers, about 175,000 to 350,000 people, will lose their jobs.

When added up, the former minister estimates a loss of over 500,000 jobs.

“If the layoffs occur in other areas of unofficial employment, the figure will be even bigger,” Mylovanov wrote.