NBU could review inflation forecast in April depending on developments

The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) in April could review inflation forecast depending on developments, the central bank has reported on its website.

"The National Bank's January forecast provided for 4.8% inflation at the end of 2020, but may be revised in April depending on further developments," the NBU said in a release on Thursday.

"The NBU continues its monetary policy easing, as predicted, in order to bring inflation back to its target range of 5% +/- 1 pp and to support economic growth in Ukraine amid a cooling global economy," the central bank said.

So far, the global spread of the novel coronavirus has had a limited or neutral impact on the economy of Ukraine. Ukraine's exports continue to rise.

"Further increases in physical volumes of exports have more than offset certain declines in prices for some of the goods the country exports. At the same time, import prices (especially energy prices) are declining even faster than export prices," the central bank said.

Uncertainty over the spread of the novel coronavirus, and stronger turbulence on financial and commodity markets saw the Ukrainian FX market respond with deteriorated sentiment and increased nervousness, the NBU said.

Apart from the drop in global prices caused by the coronavirus, disinflation in Ukraine will be driven by the recent rise in competition between crude oil producers. This will keep energy prices at record lows, which will also impact prices for Ukrainian exports, the NBU said.

According to the report, overall, the effect of all these factors on economic growth and inflation in Ukraine will be mixed, adding to the uncertainty.

Source: www.en.interfax.com.ua