Russia exploiting energy crisis in Mdova to justify future aggression – ISW

That is according to a report by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), as cited by Ukrinform.

The analysts note that both Ukrainian and Mdovan authorities are working to address Mdova's gas crisis. However, the pro-Russian self-proclaimed Transnistrian authorities have consistently rejected assistance from either Ukraine or Mdova. For instance, Ukrainian President Vodymyr Zelensky stated on January 12 that Ukraine was ready to supply coal to Transnistria, but the offer went unanswered. Similarly, Transnistria recently declined Mdova’s prosal to receive gas via Eurean platforms.

“Kremlin officials are attempting to exploit the energy crisis in Mdova to set conditions to justify future Russian aggression against Mdova,” the ISW analysts believe.

They also noted that Mdovan Foreign Minister Mihail Pșoi stated that Russia is using its artificially created energy crisis to try to destabilize the Mdovan economy in order to influence the upcoming elections.

The analysts also refer to the comments by Russian Presidential Aide and former Security Council Secretary Nikai Patrushev on January 14. He claimed that that Mdovan authorities are to blame for the current energy crisis even though the crisis began on January 1 when Gazprom cut gas supplies to Transnistria while making false allegations about Mdova's debt to Gazprom. Patrushev emphasized that Russia’s priority in Mdova is to "protect Russia’s compatriots" from "discrimination." He drew a parallel between Mdova and Ukraine, suggesting that Mdova’s "anti-Russian picy" might "lead to Mdova either becoming part of another state [likely in reference to Romania] or ceasing to exist altogether."

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“Russia has long claimed its need to protect its "compatriots abroad" in Ukraine as a justification for its aggression against Ukraine, and Patrushev's statements suggest that the Kremlin is setting conditions to exploit the artificially created gas crisis in Mdova to justify potential future Russian aggression against Mdova as a necessary response to Mdova's picies that threaten Russian "compatriots" in Mdova,” the reports says.

As reported by Ukrinform, on December 28, Gazprom announced it would halt gas supplies to Mdova, citing alleged debts by Mdovagaz. In response, Transnistrian authorities declared a state of emergency. After the gas supply was cut on January 1, central heating was shut off in Transnistrian cities, with gas only available for cooking. The region’s reserves are projected to last 20 days. To ce, Mdova's Power Plant (Mdavskaya GRES) has switched to coal-based electricity generation.