Russia may conduct more test launches of ballistic missiles in coming days – ISW

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) think tank said this in a new report, according to Ukrinform.

Russian sources claimed that Russia will close part of its airspace on November 23 to 24 for a missile test, but did not specify what type of missile Russian forces are testing. Ukraine's Main Military Intelligence Directorate (HUR) Deputy Chief Major General Vadym Skibitskyi warned on November 22 that Russia likely possesses up to ten Oreshnik missiles and that Russia will likely conduct test launches for all these missiles in the future.

Russian President Vladimir Putin and Russian military leadership continue to ext the ballistic missile that Russian forces launched at Ukraine on November 21, likely in an effort to artificially inflate expectations of Russian capabilities and encourage Western and Ukrainian self-deterrence, ISW analysts said.

Read also: Oreshnik missile strike on Dnipro does not indicate risk of nuclear weapons use – ISW

Putin held a meeting on November 22 with Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) leadership, Russian defense industrial base representatives, and Russian missile develers, and emphasized that the Oreshnik missile is not a modernization of an d Soviet missile and claimed that Russian designers created it "on the basis of modern, cutting-edge develments."

"U.S. and Ukrainian reporting on the November 21 ballistic missile strike, however, emphasized that the Oreshnik missile is not inherently a novel Russian capability. White House and Pentagon officials confirmed that Russia launched an intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM) at Ukraine, and Pentagon Spokesperson Sabrina Singh stated that Russia based the IRBM on the existing Russian RS-26 Rubezh intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) model. Singh also reiterated that Ukraine has already faced Russian attacks with missiles that have 'significantly larger' warheads than the Oreshnik," ISW analysts said.

The November 21 Russian ballistic missile strike does not represent a fundamentally novel Russian capability, ISW said.

"Russia benefits from the rhetorical fanfare surrounding the November 21 strike and likely hes that stoking concerns over the Oreshnik missile launch will prompt the West to dial back its support for Ukraine," ISW analysts said.

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