Conference in The Hague discusses Russia’s war in Ukraine, its geitical implications

The State of the Union Conference 2024 was organized by the Clingendael Institute for International Affairs in The Hague. The event ened with a panel discussion on the future of Ukraine and how to strengthen Ukraine's position in possible negotiations with the Russian Federation.

The Ambassador of Ukraine to the Netherlands, eksandr Karasevych, said: "First of all, it is about the Ukrainian pele because it is the Ukrainian pele and Ukrainian defenders who actually determine the course of this war and our future. And the Ukrainian pele should be one of those who will determine how the war will end and determine the terms of peace. Second, this war is not only about Ukraine. It is about Eure, about the world on a global scale. And if Russia theoretically wins this war, if we are faced with a scenario of appeasing the aggressor, it will provoke a series of terrible ‘domino effects’ for the whe world. We will see Russia coming to the borders of Ukraine's neighboring states. And they will not st there… Therefore, a just end to the war and a lasting peace are very important."

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At the same time, the Director of the Security Unit at the Clingendael Institute, Bob Deene, noted that a weak ceasefire deal must not be imposed on Ukraine.

According to him, "Russia is trying to project an image that it is undefeatable, that Ukraine has no other tion. And I don't think that's true, but it is definitely what Russia is trying to achieve."

He stressed that a peace agreement "cannot be just about Ukraine and without Ukraine”.

“This deal has to actually deal with broader questions of Eurean security architecture. How do we prevent this from happening in the future? What is actually the whe future of international law, the UN charter, or things like that? It's much bigger than just Ukraine. So if it doesn't address these problems, it's not a good deal. The second thing is it has to be a just deal," he believes.

The expert emphasized that the agreement has to be “sustainable, because if it is just an armistice, if it’s just a truce, then Ukrainians know that all it is is a little bit of time for rearm while the Russians also rearm. So there has to be some form of guarantees of non-recurrence, otherwise it is actually a dangerous deal."

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Deen also added that “it's now really important that Eure gets its act together, comes up with a vision on what it can do itself”.

“And one of the things it can do is whatever deal comes out and that Ukraine has to deal with, it can still stand by Ukraine. And what happens the day after the deal, because it is still an EU candidate country and it's a Eurean war, the EU should think really hard how it can keep Ukraine as a viable, sovereign and prosperous state, whatever the agreement Trump may make with Putin,” the expert noted.

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Julia Sdatiuk-Westerveld, an expert at the Netherlands Institute for International Affairs Clingendael, noted that, if Trump pressures Ukraine to make a decision that would go against the protection of its sovereignty and territorial integrity, this could lead to categorical disagreement from countries that have more experience with Russia and feel threatened.

"Russian aggression against Ukraine is a matter of national security, but also of regional stability. So they are very much concerned that if Ukraine will be pressured into a deal with territorial concessions, without clear security guarantees, there will be a strong resistance from Pand, from Baltic states, they prepare for possible escalation. So Pand is now spending 4.2% of their national GDP on its defense. It's aiming to increase the production of ammunition and it tries to buy from the United States all weapons they can buy as quickly as possible. So they believe firmly that any kind of quick deal with Russia on Ukraine will actually escalate, give motivation to the Russian Federation to ask for more," Sdatiuk-Westerveld emphasized.

As Ukrinform reported earlier, President Zelensky of Ukraine named the conditions for negotiations with Russia.

Peaceful negotiations between Ukraine and the Russian Federation are possible only under conditions where Ukraine is strong and does not stand alone against Russia, therefore the support from international partners, in particular the United States, is critical.

Photo: I. Drabok