Main points
- The National Bank of Ukraine predicts that due to shelling of Ukrainian ports and infrastructure, the country's exports in the first quarter of 2026 could decrease by $1 billion.
- Despite a 17% increase in exports, risks to foreign trade remain high due to shelling, forcing exporters to seek alternative supply routes.
Ukraine loses a billion dollars / Photo Unsplash
Ukrainian exporters risk losing significant revenues due to intensified Russian shelling of port, energy, and industrial infrastructure. The National Bank estimates potential foreign exchange shortfalls in the first quarter of 2026 at about $1 billion.
Ukraine could lose up to a billion dollars in exports due to shelling
Deputy Chairman of the National Bank of Ukraine Volodymyr Lepushynskyy said that despite the projected growth of exports in 2026 by about 17% and imports by about 6%, significant risks remain for foreign trade, Ukrinform reports. The greatest concern is the consequences of increased Russian attacks on Ukrainian ports and enterprises.
Back in the fourth quarter of last year, this forced some exporters to reorient their supplies to alternative routes, in particular by rail through European countries. As a result, actual export volumes were approximately $150 million lower than predicted in the previous macroeconomic forecast of the NBU.
Risks remain high in the first quarter of 2026. Due to shelling of ports and problems in the energy sector, export revenues may be about $1 billion lower than previously expected.
At the same time, the National Bank notes that current forecasts are based on the assumption of a gradual restoration of the throughput capacity of seaports. This should allow for an increase in the export of both agricultural products and goods from other industries, in particular metallurgy.
Grain exports from Ukraine are growing: what is mostly sold abroad?
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In January 2026, Ukraine exported 5.0 million tons of agro-industrial products, of which 3.4 million tons were grain crops, mainly corn.
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Exports of oilseeds and vegetable oils decreased, with soybeans accounting for 63% of oilseeds and sunflower oil for 82% of vegetable oils.