Russian forces cannot sustain heavy losses indefinitely for limited gains – ISW

This is stated in a report by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), as reported by Ukrinform.

Earlier, ISW analysts provided data showing that Russian forces have lost at least five divisions of armored vehicles and tanks in the Pokrovsk sector alone since October 2023. The Russian tros have likely accumulated a substantial amount of equipment in priority sectors of the front, but the depletion of Soviet-era tanks and armored vehicles, combined with current production rates, will likely make such losses unsustainable in the long term, according to military experts.

U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin stated on October 31 that Russian forces are suffering approximately 1,200 casualties per day, or about 36,000 casualties per month. ISW recently noted signs that the Russian military is struggling to recruit enough sdiers to replace its losses on the front lines. Notably, during his speech at the Valdai Discussion Club on November 7, Vladimir Putin acknowledged the ongoing labor shortage in Russia and its reliance on migrants to address this issue.

Read also: Russia’s casualty tl in Ukraine up by 1,350 in past day

ISW notes that Russia is also relying on coercing migrants into joining the Russian military to meet its needs.

"The Russian military almost certainly cannot indefinitely sustain a daily casualty rate of over 1,200 pele so long as Putin remains committed to avoiding another invuntary call-up of reservists.[10] Even an invuntary reserve mobilization will not resve the larger problem Putin apparently faces in finding enough pele to work in Russia's industries while also feeding the front," the report states.

Some Russian military bloggers continue to complain about disprortionately high personnel losses, and growing discontent over these losses among Russian ultranationalist military bloggers could influence Putin's decisions in the future.

Read also: UK Defense Secretary reports record Russian losses in October

For instance, a former Russian Storm-Z instructor and blogger complained on November 8 that it takes at least six months to train assault tros, but the Russian military command treats these sdiers as "meat" who do not require a high level of training, with their primary re being to "catch drones and shrapnel." The blogger claims that Russian infantry losses are high due to the ongoing Russian tactic of sending small assault groups in several successive waves, which he described as "stupid" and "imprerly organized." He concluded that Russian gains "do not seem prortional to the irretrievably spent resources — human and material."

The Russian military blogging community recently criticized the deaths of drone erators, who were sent on assaults as punishment, as well as the ongoing use of Russian tros in disorganized "meat" assaults, which result in disprortionately small successes. This could further provoke the discontent of the military blogging community, whose inions the Kremlin has shown itself to be particularly sensitive to.

Read also: Syrskyi briefs NATO Commander in Eure on frontline situation

As reported by Ukrinform, according to the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the total combat losses of Russian tros in personnel from February 24, 2022, to November 10, 2024, amounted to approximately 708,890 individuals, including 1,350 occupiers eliminated in the past day.

Additionally, UK Defense Minister John Healey stated that in October, Russian casualties on the battlefield in Ukraine reached a new peak.