Main points
- Sunflower prices in Ukraine have fallen by 1,000 – 1,500 hryvnias per ton due to oversupply and reduced demand.
- Ukrainian processors have reduced purchases due to falling processing margins and the suspension of plant operations due to shelling.
Sunflowers are getting cheaper / Photo Pixabay
The global vegetable oil market continues to show negative dynamics due to oversupply and weak demand. This has already affected the Ukrainian sunflower market, where prices have dropped by more than a thousand hryvnias per ton in a week.
Why are sunflower oil prices falling?
The global vegetable oil market remains under pressure due to increased supply and reduced demand in physical markets, GrainTrade reports. Even high oil prices cannot yet support oilseed quotes.
One of the main factors has been the situation in India, one of the largest importers of vegetable oils. Due to the increase in energy prices, the economic situation in the country is deteriorating, and oil consumption is decreasing.
As a result, prices for sunflower oil delivered to India fell by another $10 per ton during the week to $1,390-$1,400 per ton CIF Mumbai. This also dragged down the quotes for Russian and Ukrainian products.
Demand prices for Ukrainian sunflower oil with delivery to Black Sea ports dropped to 1,315 – 1,320 US dollars per ton.
Ukrainian processors reduce purchases
The situation on the domestic market is worsened by falling processing margins. Some factories in southern Ukraine have also suspended operations due to Russian shelling, which has further reduced demand for raw materials.
Because of this, processors began to purchase sunflower less actively, and competition for production volumes noticeably weakened.
During the week, the demand prices for sunflower in Ukraine fell by 1,000-1,500 hryvnias per ton. Currently, producers are offered 31,000-32,500 hryvnias per ton without value-added tax at an oil content of 50%.
Last week, prices were at a seasonal high and reached 34,000 – 34,300 hryvnias per ton.
USDA forecasts also pressure the market
An additional negative impact on the market is created by new forecasts from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). Analysts expect a significant increase in global oilseed production in the 2026/27 season.
In particular, the global sunflower harvest could increase by 13% and soybeans by 3.5%. The main reasons are the expansion of sown areas and favorable weather conditions.
Increasing global oilseed supply continues to put pressure on prices even despite expensive energy sources,
– market analysts note.
Currently, the weather is conducive to active sunflower sowing in the countries of the Black Sea region, as well as good rates of soybean sowing in the USA.
What are the current prices for sunflower in Ukraine?
In Ukraine, purchase prices for sunflower currently average from $370 to $575 per ton, or from UAH 29,000 to UAH 34,000 per ton (including VAT), depending on oil content, supply base, and region.
Prices vary slightly in the regions:
- Center and South: 25,500 – 33,000 hryvnias per ton.
- Western and Eastern regions: 25,700 – 26,500 hryvnias per ton.
Ukraine will sharply increase sunflower production: USDA forecast for the new season
We previously reported that USDA analysts increased sunflower production forecasts for Ukraine, which may also affect the cost of sunflower towards a decrease in price.
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USDA analysts predict an increase in sunflower production in Ukraine to 13.5 million tons in 2026/27.
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Exports of sunflower oil are expected to increase to 5.1 million tons and meal to 3.5 million tons.
Global production of sunflower oil could increase to 23.5 million tons, and of sunflower meal to 24.7 million tons. International trade in processed products is also expected to increase. According to analysts, global exports of sunflower oil will amount to 15.6 million tons, and of sunflower meal to 10.4 million tons.