- 1 How can the cost of agricultural products in Ukraine increase?
- 2 What does the world price of agricultural products depend on and how is it formed in Ukraine?
- 3 What is the current price of corn, wheat, and other crops?
- 4 How will the growth of agricultural products affect prices in supermarkets?
- 1 How can the cost of agricultural products in Ukraine increase?
- 2 What does the world price of agricultural products depend on and how is it formed in Ukraine?
- 3 What is the current price of corn, wheat, and other crops?
- 4 How will the growth of agricultural products affect prices in supermarkets?
The worsening situation in the Middle East has begun to directly affect not only energy markets, but also the agricultural sector. In particular, tensions around the Strait of Hormuz have already caused fluctuations in energy prices.
At the same time, for farmers, this means, first of all, an increase in costs, because in addition to the increase in fuel prices, the price of mineral fertilizers has also increased. Ukrainian farmers are no exception.
According to various estimates, the cost of agricultural products could increase by almost 20%, depending on the crop. However, it should not be forgotten that the agricultural market remains global, and domestic prices also depend to a large extent on world prices.
24 Channel learned how much the cost of production of major agricultural crops could increase, which factors of influence will become the most significant, and how the increase in cost will affect product prices.
How can the cost of agricultural products in Ukraine increase?
Economist Oleg Pendzin tells Channel 24 that fuels and lubricants account for about 30% of the costs of spring field work. At the same time, another very important area that significantly affects the cost of agricultural products is nitrogen fertilizers.
Oleg Pendzin,
Head of the Economic Discussion Club
The fact is that natural gas is a raw material for their production. Accordingly, the increase in natural gas prices, in particular due to the situation around the Strait of Hormuz, has led to a sharp increase in the price of mineral fertilizers. Therefore, there is now an expectation that the cost of production will indeed increase quite significantly.
However, Pendzin adds that now we are talking about the total amount of expenses per hectare. And in order to estimate the likely percentage increase in the price of agricultural products for the 2026 harvest, we need to know the yield per hectare.
If we assume that there will be a good harvest this year, then the standard cost of costs per hectare per unit of production will be “smeared out”. That is, there are expectations of a good harvest and, as a result, there will be good prices,
– says Mr. Oleg.
At the same time, statements from the International Food Organization are already being made about the risks of food problems in some regions of the world, in particular in Africa and Latin America.
This is because, regardless of the yield, food prices are expected to rise on world markets, which will affect the ability of poor countries to purchase food for their citizens.
This, in turn, will to some extent affect prices in Ukraine, but we should not expect a food shortage within the country.
– added Pendzin.
As Svitlana Lytvyn, head of the analytical department of the Ukrainian Agricultural Commission, notes for Channel 24 , this year we should expect the cost of production of major agricultural crops to increase. This is a range of up to almost 20%, and the largest increase is expected for corn – approximately 17%.
Svetlana Lytvyn,
Head of the Analytical Department of the UCAB
Among the key factors of the price increase: fuel, fertilizers, plant protection products, land rent and personnel costs. In particular, diesel fuel has increased in price by approximately 67% over the year, which significantly affected the cost price in all industries. But it is worth considering that some farmers had purchased fuel in advance.
In addition, another increase in costs is fertilizers. According to Lytvyn, the price increase here can reach up to 29%. She adds that this is all due to nitrogen fertilizers, the cost of which has increased significantly due to events in the Middle East.
In addition, it is worth mentioning the means of protection against growth. Although they do not grow as fast, they still add 5% to the cost on average.
What does the world price of agricultural products depend on and how is it formed in Ukraine?
In a conversation with Channel 24, Deputy Chairman of the All-Ukrainian Agrarian Council Denys Marchuk said that if we talk about agricultural products, in particular basic agricultural crops such as corn and wheat, their price does not directly depend on the situation in Ukraine.
As Marchuk explains, Ukrainian agricultural products are tied to international markets, and therefore prices for grain and oilseed crops are formed globally.
At the same time, it is observed that despite the difficulties with expenses during this year's sowing campaign, Ukraine still has significant transitional balances from last season due to the reduction in export potential, in particular to the markets of Asia and Africa, as a result of constant attacks on port infrastructure.
Denys Marchuk,
Deputy Head of VAR
So this season we may reach high transitional balances, which may exceed 10 million tons. These are large volumes, and accordingly, they will put pressure on the new price, which will be formed during the harvest period, because in fact the warehouses will still be partially filled, and the logistics are loaded.
Therefore, Marchuk emphasizes: it is impossible to say that the cost of agricultural production has increased and, automatically, its price will increase after that.
However, he adds that in this situation it is important to separate agricultural products that go to international markets and those that are grown for the needs of Ukrainian citizens.
What is the current price of corn, wheat and other crops?
Interestingly, a new wave of price increases for agricultural products, in particular for feed corn in ports, has now begun on the market, APK-Inform reports. The main reason for this increase is that the Turkish side has set quotas for the import of 3 million tons of corn in the amount of 5%.
- For example, on April 23, the price of corn ranged from $218 to $222 per ton, in particular in the ports of Greater Odessa – $216-224 per ton, and in the Danube ports – $215-221 per ton. According to Grain Trade, the price is 10,700 hryvnia per ton (CPT terminal).
- However, according to the Kurkul website, as of April 23, wheat cost from 209 to 217 dollars per ton, that is, approximately from 9,000 hryvnias to 10,400 hryvnias per ton. However, Grain Trade data shows that grade 2 wheat costs 10,952 hryvnias per ton (CPT terminal), grade 3 – 10,836 hryvnias, and grade 4 – 10,370 hryvnias.
- Soybean, on the other hand, cost 20,000 hryvnias per ton, and non-GMO – 21,350 hryvnias per ton. And malting barley – 11,000 hryvnias per ton.
Reference! Feed corn or feed wheat are crops that are not used for food, but as animal feed.
According to the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, international wheat prices rose by 4.3%. In contrast, world corn prices rose by only 0.9%. Barley prices also rose. But the price index for whole rice fell by 3% in March 2026.
Overall, on the global market, US winter wheat is currently priced at $250 to $253 per tonne (FOB), while wheat originating from the Baltic Sea is trading closer to $238 to $240 per tonne, according to AgroLatam. Corn, on the other hand, is priced at around $211 per tonne (FOB US), according to the official website of the Australian Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry.
Note! The difference between CPT and FOB is that CPT is goods that are only delivered to a point and not necessarily loaded onto a vessel, while FOB is goods already on the vessel.
How will the growth of agricultural products affect prices in supermarkets?
According to Denys Marchuk, logistics prices have already led to a significant increase in food prices within the country.
I believe that the total cost due to logistics costs, including rising fuel prices, or due to production processes, can reach up to 10%,
– says the deputy head of VAR.
Instead, UCAB analyst Maksym Hopka, in a conversation with Channel 24, classified different categories of food products according to the impact of the increase in the cost of production in the agricultural sector on them.
- Dairy products
The additional costs of dairy production were affected by the power outage. Both milk producers and processors actively used additional capacity to support production processes.
Maksym Hopka,
analyst at UCAB
At the same time, due to market changes and increased supply, world prices for dairy products decreased in the winter. To some extent, this was offset by additional costs. So we had a situation where costs for processors increased, and purchase prices for raw milk decreased. This situation allowed us to somewhat maintain prices for the end consumer.
However, dairy products will experience an increase in cost due to changes in fuel prices, because for the Ukrainian market, milk is typically collected from farms and households, sometimes from distances of up to 100 kilometers.
- Meat products
For such products, the main factor that plays a large role in the cost is the cost of feed. Currently, it can be noted that feed costs have not increased much compared to last year, but there are additional costs in logistics and power outages, says Hopka.
Today, the supply of meat on the market is stable and meat prices increased by an average of 5% after Easter, which is due to increased seasonal demand and logistical costs for the end consumer,
– explained the UCAB analyst.
- Vegetables and fruits
Changes will also affect this segment, primarily affecting imported fruits and vegetables, as they travel the longest logistics route. In general, the situation with vegetables has not changed significantly since the beginning of spring, as the supply from Ukrainian producers is not yet coming in large volumes.
The increase in Ukrainian supply will begin in mid-May, prices will gradually begin to decline during this period,
– Mr. Maksym noted.
However, there is a risk of worsening weather and temperature fluctuations in May, which could lead to an increase in production costs in greenhouse plants, and then average vegetable prices will not fall quickly.