Expert explains when Russia may launch aggression against Europe

Main points

  • The US has temporarily lifted sanctions on Russian oil due to a price spike caused by the war with Iran. This strengthens Russia.
  • Military expert, international security expert at the Democratic Initiatives Foundation Taras Zhovtenko explained when Russia could resort to hybrid aggression against Europe.

The United States has eased some sanctions against Russia amid high oil prices, a move that could eventually backfire on the United States and other Western partners.

Taras Zhovtenko, a military expert and international security expert at the Democratic Initiatives Foundation, told Channel 24 that the US has already temporarily lifted sanctions on Russian oil that was at sea. The US also periodically lifts restrictions against Belarusian enterprises.

Russia may be preparing for aggression against Europe

According to Zhovtenko, Russia is earning significant funds amid the instability of oil prices. Of course, they will not be able to cover the current budget deficit. But the additional funds will clearly allow the enemy to feel better.

Of course, such decisions could give Russia an impetus for hybrid aggression against European countries. This money is enough to buy certain technologies through Belarus or to give something to Kim Jong-un,
– noted Zhovtenko.

At the same time, the choice of the moment for hybrid aggression against European countries depends on geopolitics. Russia is waiting to see how the situation with the peace talks on Iran will end and how relations between the United States and Europe will develop.

Sanctions against Russia: latest news

  • In March, the United States allowed the sale of Russian oil that was loaded onto ships before March 12. The permit was supposed to be valid for 30 days. The US made this decision because of the war with Iran and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which caused oil prices to jump. In the end, the United States extended this permit. It will now be valid until May 16.
  • US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant explained why the US had taken such a decision again. He argued that the US had been approached by 10 “poor countries” that were particularly affected by rising energy prices.
  • President Volodymyr Zelensky has called for tougher sanctions against Russia, stressing that every dollar of Russian oil goes to war.
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